Fidelity's global macro research director Jurien Timmer, who has a long-term positive outlook on Bitcoin, has recently become more conservative. He warned that Bitcoin has likely completed another "4-year cycle" and will enter a correction period lasting up to a year, with the possibility of experiencing a "crypto winter."
Jurien Timmer pointed out that, based on historical experience, the trend of Bitcoin has always followed a continuously repeating cycle. From the perspective of historical patterns and time structure, the current market phase closely matches the past transitions between bull and bear markets.
He specifically mentioned that Bitcoin reached a historic high of $125,000 in October this year, after experiencing approximately 145 months of growth, which completely aligns with the expected range of historical models.
Jurien Timmer stated that the Bitcoin bear market (commonly referred to as a "crypto winter") usually lasts about a year. He

The bankruptcy liquidator of Terraform Labs has filed a lawsuit against Jump Trading, seeking $4 billion in damages, accusing it of abusing the ecosystem during the collapse of Terra, which resulted in approximately $40 billion in losses. Jump Trading denies the allegations, calling the move a means of shifting responsibility. Currently, Terraform Labs has recovered about $300 million in assets.

Analysts point out that Bitcoin is hovering near the "critically important long-term support line" and has been holding on for as long as 3 weeks, causing the long positions in the market to be on edge. However, the publicly traded company Strategy (MSTR), as the largest Bitcoin holder in the world, has already been the first to break through this "safety line," sending a strong bearish signal to the crypto assets market.
CoinDesk senior analyst and chartered market technician Omkar Godbole explained that this "safety line" is the extremely critical "100-week simple moving average (100-week SMA)" in technical analysis, which mainly reflects the average cost over the past two years and is an indicator used by major market technical analysts to identify significant trend reversals, long-term support, or confirm market crashes.
From the trend perspective, the 100-week moving average has exerted strong power for 3 consecutive weeks.

The Bank of Japan today (19th) raised interest rates by 1 basis point as expected, but the financial market staged a "counterintuitive" performance: the yen fell instead of rising, with the exchange rate against the US dollar depreciating to the 156 level; Bitcoin once surged past 87,000 dollars.
To curb the risk of continuously rising prices, the Bank of Japan (Central Bank of Japan) has decided to raise the policy interest rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) to 0.75%, marking the highest interest rate level in 30 years and signaling Japan's formal farewell to decades of ultra-loose monetary policy.
In the decision statement, the Bank of Japan admitted that due to rising import prices and soaring domestic prices, the inflation rate has long been maintained above the target of 2%. However, decision-makers also emphasized that the "real interest rate" after excluding inflation is still negative. This means that even if the nominal interest rate is raised, the monetary policy environment remains biased towards "accommodative."
After the news was announced, the market saw a typical "sell

US Crypto Assets regulatory legislation has moved forward again. White House AI and Crypto Assets Czar David Sacks stated on Thursday that the highly anticipated Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is set to undergo its final markup in January next year, symbolizing that this key piece of legislation is one step closer to formal enactment.
David Sack posted on social media platform X, stating: "Today we had a very positive call with Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott and Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman, who confirmed that the Clarity Act will be reviewed in January."
> We have never been so close to passing this cryptocurrency market structure bill, which has also been personally endorsed by President Trump.
> We had a

Tom Lee is optimistic about Ethereum, believing it will become the core settlement layer of future finance, driving up the value of Ether. He pointed out that institutional adoption is still in its early stages, and Ethereum has more practical utility than Bitcoin. He predicts that 2026 will be a big year for Ethereum and provides multiple price forecasts, emphasizing that investors should make their own decisions.

This article is written by Tiger Research and discusses how the big dump in Bitcoin prices has forced miners to change their business models.
Key Points
Unstable income and rising costs of Bitcoin mining have made the core business of crypto mining companies unstable.
Therefore, cryptocurrency miners are transforming by renting out data center space from existing mining sites to large technology companies.
This move reduces fierce competition, making the industry more robust.
1. Business Risks Faced by Cryptocurrency Miners
We previously analyzed the financial risks brought to digital asset treasury (DAT) reserve companies by the fall in Bitcoin prices. However, it is not only DAT companies that are under pressure. Bitcoin mining companies directly engaged in mining operations also face significant risks.
The vulnerability of mining companies stems from their simple business model. Revenue almost entirely depends on the price of Bitcoin, and the price of Bitcoin itself has

Circle announced the acquisition of the development team Interop Labs from Axelar Network, aiming to strengthen its cross-chain infrastructure. This acquisition only involves the team and technology, excluding Axelar and its token AXL, which has sparked dissatisfaction and discussion among holders. Supporters believe this is the norm in the market, but critics accuse the token holders of being excluded. The core issue lies in the positioning of the token within the capital structure, which requires further exploration of its rights and value.

The U.S. Senate has approved Mike Selig to serve as the chairman of the CFTC and Travis Hill to lead the FDIC, both of whom have a friendly attitude towards Crypto Assets. The CFTC is gradually becoming the core institution for the regulation of Crypto Assets, facing challenges of insufficient manpower. Meanwhile, the FDIC is dedicated to addressing the regulatory pressures banks face regarding the crypto industry and promoting banking services for the crypto sector.

Author: David, Deep Tide TechFlow

On December 15, Bitcoin fell from $90,000 to $85,616, a single-day drop of over 5%.
There are no significant incidents or negative events on this day, and on-chain data does not show any unusual selling pressure. If you only look at news from the cryptocurrency sphere, it’s hard to find a "reasonable" explanation.
On the same day, the gold price was $4,323 per ounce, down only $1 from the previous day.
One dropped by 5%, while the other barely moved.
If Bitcoin is truly "digital gold" and a tool for hedging against inflation and fiat currency devaluation, then its performance in the face of risk events should resemble that of gold. However, this time its trend clearly resembles that of high beta tech stocks in the Nasdaq.
What is driving this round of decline? The answer may lie in Tokyo.
The Butterfly Effect of Tokyo

With over 100 cryptocurrency ETFs expected to emerge by 2026, the market faces significant bubble risks. Bloomberg analysts point out that many ETFs may be quickly liquidated due to insufficient capital inflows, and the intense market competition has already caused some products to exit prematurely. Although the SEC's new regulations have accelerated the listing process, long-term survival still requires following the stability of funding support.

Although Bitcoin has retraced over 30% in the past 10 weeks, causing concern among many investors, on-chain data indicates that the spark of the long positions market does not seem to have extinguished.
According to Glassnode data, the Bitcoin "Realized Cap" is currently still firmly standing at the historical high of $1.125 trillion, indicating that there has not been a large-scale capital withdrawal from the market, suggesting that the bullish market pattern remains solid.
Unlike the "Market Cap" (current price x total circulation) that we often see, this on-chain indicator is more valuable for reference. The "Realized Market Cap" calculates the total value by using the price of each Bitcoin at the "last time it moved on-chain," excluding the short-term speculative hype, reflecting the "actual cost basis invested by investors" and the "actual capital inflow situation."
In other words, when the total market value fluctuates wildly with the coin price,

Fidelity's Global Macro Research Director Jurien Timmer, who has been long-term optimistic about Bitcoin, has recently become more cautious. He warns that Bitcoin has likely completed another "4-year cycle" and is about to enter a prolonged correction phase, possibly even facing a "Crypto winter."
Jurien Timmer pointed out that, based on historical experience, Bitcoin's price movements have consistently followed repeating cyclical patterns. From historical laws and time structures, this current cycle aligns closely with many previous bull and bear transitions.
He specifically mentioned that Bitcoin reached a historical high of $125,000 in October this year, after approximately 145 months of upward trend, which fully matches the expected range predicted by historical models.
Jurien Timmer stated that Bitcoin's bear market (commonly referred to as "Crypto winter") usually lasts about a year.