18 Dec based (broad red across majors/alts) + today’s market data/news.
Market state (overall)
Risk-off / corrective tape. Most is red, and majors are bleeding together → this is usually “de-risk + liquidity is tight” behavior, not an alt-season expansion.
BTC is the key driver right now. BTC ~$86.5k and ETH ~$2.85k today.
Narrative today: ETF flow volatility + macro uncertainty keeps buyers cautious.
Key technical zones to respect (simple & tradeable)
Using today’s levels:
BTC
Support: ~$86k (current area) then $82–80k if that breaks (common “panic support” zone being watched).
Reclaim trigger: $90k+ (today’s intraday high area). If BTC reclaims and holds above it, odds shift back to upside continuation.
ETH
Support: $2.85k region (today’s lows are close).
Reclaim trigger: $3k+ (psych + recent cap).
SOL / XRP / BNB are moving with the same risk-off basket today (all down ~2–3%+).
How to trade it (practical plan)
If you’re trading futures (short-term)
Regime: range + breakdown risk → you want confirmations, not predictions.
Plan A: Range long (higher probability)
Only long if BTC holds above ~$86k AND prints a reclaim (e.g., breaks a local lower-high on your 15m/1h).
Targets: partials at $90k, then trail if momentum stays.
Stops: below the most recent 1h swing low (don’t give it room to nuke you).
Plan B: Breakdown short (clean invalidation)
If BTC loses ~$86k and fails a retest from below → that’s your short trigger.
Target zone: $82k then $80k.
Leverage note (important):
In this kind of chop, x10 is survivable only with small size + tight invalidation. If you insist on x10, trade smaller and let the stop be the stop (no averaging down).
If you’re doing spot (swing / investing)
Because your watchlist is mostly alts (NEAR, ONDO, RENDER, STRK, SUI, HBAR, LINK, ADA, etc.), spot should be structured DCA, not full sends.
Build positions in 2–4 buys (ladder down), keep dry powder.
Bias: BTC/ETH heavier until BTC confirms a reclaim (alts usually underperform in
“strongest bullish returns?”
From what is being monitored, the ones that usually lead when sentiment flips:
RWA / institutional narrative: ONDO (benefits when “tokenized treasuries / RWA” heats up)
Infrastructure/oracles: LINK (tends to catch rotation when the market goes “quality”)
High beta L1: SOL / SUI / NEAR (great upside when risk-on returns, but sharper drawdowns in risk-off)
AI/compute narrative: RENDER / AKT (runs hard when AI narrative is hot—also dumps fast when it cools)
What could turn everything bullish again? (Catalysts to watch)
These are the realistic “switches” that change the whole market tone:
1. ETF flows flip back to net inflows
Recent headlines point to meaningful ETF outflows and cautious positioning. If that reverses for several sessions, it’s a strong “risk-on is back” signal.
2. Macro: clearer path to rate cuts / easier financial conditions
Jobs data and Fed expectations matter because crypto trades like a risk asset lately. A softer macro read or a shift toward easier policy can restart the bid.
3. “Yield crypto” / staking ETF momentum
There’s active movement around staking inside ETFs (ETH/SOL side). That’s a meaningful catalyst because it adds a “carry/yield” narrative for institutions.
4. SOL ecosystem / ETF speculation
SOL catalysts can quickly lift SOL beta (and then lift other high-beta alts), especially if ETF-related developments progress.
#HasTheMarketDipped?
#FightTheBear

Market tone: Mostly red (alts down ~1–6% while BTC is only mildly red and ETH slightly green). That’s classic risk-off / defensive rotation: capital hides in majors while higher-beta alts bleed.
Sentiment: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is 16 (Extreme Fear).
That usually means volatility is elevated, people are impatient, and liquidity thins—great for patient spot DCA, dangerous for high-leverage futures.
---
Macro drivers primarily affecting the market
1) US jobs / labor signal → “growth scare” vibes
US initial jobless claims printed 236K, up from 192K (bigger-than-expected jump).
This can push markets toward “Fed will ease sooner” (eventually supportive for BTC), but the first reaction is often risk-off if traders interpret it as weakening growth.
2) Bank of Japan → tightening risk = global risk assets pressured
BOJ rate-hike expectations are rising (market talk around a move toward 0.75%), supported by Japan’s Tankan showing stronger business sentiment.
A more hawkish BOJ can strengthen JPY and pressure global “carry” trades—often negative short-term for crypto (less leverage, less risk appetite).
3) ETF flow backdrop (sentiment + liquidity)
Spot BTC ETF flows have been choppy recently (outflow day then inflow days).
In this kind of tape, flows matter more than narratives: rallies without sustained inflows tend to fade.
---
Practical trading plan for today
A) Spot strategy (best fit in Extreme Fear)
Goal: build positions without getting chopped.
Core spot bias (safer):
BTC + ETH = primary DCA anchors while fear is extreme.
Add “utility/infra with persistent demand” in smaller size: LINK, SOL (if your risk tolerance is higher).
How to execute (simple + effective):
Split your intended buy into 4–6 tranches.
Buy 1 tranche now, then only add when:
1. BTC holds the day’s low and reclaims intraday VWAP (or 4H structure), or
2. You get a deeper flush (panic wick) with quick recovery.
Alt spot selection (roadmap + survivability lens):
Higher quality / narrative-backed (small adds only): LINK, SOL, NEAR, ONDO, RENDER, HBAR
More speculative / treat as “options” (tiny size only): SUI, APT, AKT, CELO, QUBIC, CFG, GFI, XION
In risk-off conditions, these can keep bleeding even if “the roadmap is good.”
---
B) Futures strategy (only if you want action)
When Fear = 16, futures should be defensive.
Rules (non-negotiable today):
1–3x leverage max
Risk 0.5–1% of account per trade
No “revenge trades” in chop
Best instruments today: BTC-PERP, ETH-PERP (avoid thin alts)
Setups that fit this market:
1. Short-the-rally (macro risk-off play)
Trigger: BTC/ETH rallies into prior resistance + funding turns positive + volume fades
Entry: scale in (2–3 clips)
Stop: just above the swing high
Take-profit: partial at mid-range, final near prior lows
2. Mean-reversion long (only after a liquidation flush)
Trigger: sharp wick down + quick reclaim of key intraday level + OI drops (liquidations)
Entry: on reclaim, not on the knife
TP: fast, don’t marry it (this tape pays quick exits)
Hedge idea (if you hold many alts spot):
Keep your spot alts, but hedge with a small BTC or ETH short during BOJ/Fed-sensitive hours. If markets dump, your hedge pays; if markets bounce, your spot wins.
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What I think is happening technically (high level)
Breadth is weak: too many alts red at once → rally attempts likely get sold.
Majors are acting as “cash-like” inside crypto: BTC down small while alts drop more.
Volatility is being repriced: fear is extreme, so sudden spikes both ways are normal.
#ShortTearmBearish

#DecemberMarketOutlook
SOL/USDT at critical support: time for a rebound or a pause before the rally?
The current price of SOL is $131.71 (-2.51%), reflecting a general correction in the market. However, the technical picture indicates approaching a key level where the next significant wave may be determined.
Key Bollinger levels:
· Resistance (UB): $144.64
· Middle line (BOLL): $136.04
· Support (LB): $127.45 ✅
The price is in the lower part of the channel, testing the zone $130.34–$127.45. Holding this level has historically often preceded strong upward movements.
Volumes and momentum:
· SOL volume (SOL): 850.15K
· USDT turnover (USDT): $116.40M
· Current volume (767.38K) is below the 5-period average (899.57K), which is typical for consolidation phases and may spike upon a breakout.
RSI indicates oversold conditions:
· RSI(6): 38.85 — the main indicator suggests that short-term oversold conditions may be exhausted.
· RSI(12): 41.96 and RSI(24): 44.39 — also remain in neutral-lower zones, leaving room for growth.
Growth potential: what could be the driver?
1. Technical factor: Rebound from support $127.45 aiming to retest the middle Bollinger line ($136.04) and then toward $144.64.
2. Fundamental context: Activity in the Solana ecosystem (DeFi, NFT, meme coins) remains high. Successful network updates and TVL growth can sustain interest.
3. Market trend: BTC recovery above $94K may give an impetus to the entire altcoin sector, including SOL.
Scenarios:
· Base (probable): Holding $127.45 → corrective rise to $136–$144.
· Alternative: Break below $127.45 with confirmation → possible correction to $120–$115 before a new attempt to rise.
· Target on upside breakout: If held above $144.64, the next target is the zone $160–$170.
Conclusion:
SOL has approached an important technical threshold. Oversold indicators (RSI) and testing the lower Bollinger boundary create prerequisites for a technical rebound. However, confident growth will require confirmation through increased volumes and overall positive market dynamics.
Are you ready to consider the $127–$130 area as a zone for accumulation, or are you waiting for stronger signals?
$SOL

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Cathie Wood: The 4-year cycle is over!
The bottom was already in on November 21 at $80,600. If you missed out, there’s really nothing you can do.
Bitcoin has shifted from a speculative risk asset to a strategic asset.
Institutions now treat it as digital gold, allocating for the long term rather than short-term trading.
Combined with the Fed and macroeconomic cycles, $BTC is now a pillar of global finance—how could it possibly collapse?
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