Breakout from Sideways Movement: The Contract Rolling Logic Learned from 50,000 Profit
In late winter 2019, I heard a story during a night run at Shenzhen Bay. An older brother with a cane still insisted on running 5 kilometers every day. He said that leg was "broken by coins"—during the March 2018 wave, after a 20x short position was liquidated, he angrily kicked the table and ended up in the hospital. Now his account has recovered to 3 million, and he summarized the core principle in four words: Buy on dips.
I recorded this methodology and used a 50,000 profit to conduct a full year of validation testing. This is not investment advice, just trading notes.
**Only with survival can there be a comeback**
First, stop the losses. Once my account was down to 30,000, I withdrew the remaining funds, leaving only 50,000 as new principal. This decision looked clumsy but was actually very clear-headed—survival is more important than anything. Only use profits to operate; stop losing money here, and half of the psychological barrier is cleared.
**Position size is the line between life and death**
The rules are strict, and because they are strict, they are effective:
- Isolated margin mode, using only 5,000 of a 50,000 account as margin
- Leverage capped at 10x, with a 2% hard stop-loss
- When no clear opportunity appears, run small positions to practice, without moving the principal at all
The benefit of this approach is that the damage from a single mistake is limited. Many people think this is overly conservative, but in the contract market, stability is productivity.
**Wait for three types of breakout signals simultaneously**
Not every time is suitable for full position. My standards are:
1. A drop of over 50%, indicating the bottom has been formed
2. Sideways consolidation lasting more than 30 days, with full competition between bulls and bears
3. When breaking above the previous high, wait for an additional 3% confirmation to prevent false breakouts
Also, observe on-chain data—such as $BTC or $ETH USDT premium turning positive, and three consecutive days of net inflow on-chain. When these signals coincide, invest the full 5,000 margin, with a 2% stop-loss. This is true "waiting"—not frequent trading, but patient trading.
Signals like the 120-day moving average stabilizing, volume and price rising together, are everywhere and have little reference value. The key is to identify those few indicators that reveal the true intentions of the main players.
**Profit is the principal**
The 5,000 margin for opening a position is always locked and never increased. The profits earned are the real money. When the gain reaches 10%, use that 10% profit to add another 5,000, so now there are two 5,000 positions running. If the trend continues, and the account increases by 50%, it can multiply 3 to 4 times. At that point, withdraw 30% to lock in gains, and continue to follow the rest.
The logic is: always protect the initial principal, and only risk profits. Even if everything is lost, there is a bottom line.
**Avoid three market conditions**
Volatility, downward trend, hot spots. These three market states are breeding grounds for impatience. Frequent trading in volatility just earns exchange fees; holding full positions during a downward trend is suicide; chasing hot spots is just taking on the risk of being the last to buy in. Rolling positions are only suitable for clear trending markets; in ambiguous situations, stay on the sidelines.
Those who survive in the crypto world are never those who trade frequently. Knowing when not to act is more valuable than knowing how to act. Rolling positions is essentially waiting for the right timing.
**Rhythm is more important than reaction speed**
The market is always noisy, with voices calling you to enter every minute. True profit logic is never found in this chaos but in staying calm at key moments and understanding where the deep rhythm lies. Many people are not slow in operation but are trapped by market noise, busy working in a frenzy.
Understanding when to enter and exit is what makes a trader last the longest. It’s not about bravery, but about clarity. #加密市场小幅回暖
In late winter 2019, I heard a story during a night run at Shenzhen Bay. An older brother with a cane still insisted on running 5 kilometers every day. He said that leg was "broken by coins"—during the March 2018 wave, after a 20x short position was liquidated, he angrily kicked the table and ended up in the hospital. Now his account has recovered to 3 million, and he summarized the core principle in four words: Buy on dips.
I recorded this methodology and used a 50,000 profit to conduct a full year of validation testing. This is not investment advice, just trading notes.
**Only with survival can there be a comeback**
First, stop the losses. Once my account was down to 30,000, I withdrew the remaining funds, leaving only 50,000 as new principal. This decision looked clumsy but was actually very clear-headed—survival is more important than anything. Only use profits to operate; stop losing money here, and half of the psychological barrier is cleared.
**Position size is the line between life and death**
The rules are strict, and because they are strict, they are effective:
- Isolated margin mode, using only 5,000 of a 50,000 account as margin
- Leverage capped at 10x, with a 2% hard stop-loss
- When no clear opportunity appears, run small positions to practice, without moving the principal at all
The benefit of this approach is that the damage from a single mistake is limited. Many people think this is overly conservative, but in the contract market, stability is productivity.
**Wait for three types of breakout signals simultaneously**
Not every time is suitable for full position. My standards are:
1. A drop of over 50%, indicating the bottom has been formed
2. Sideways consolidation lasting more than 30 days, with full competition between bulls and bears
3. When breaking above the previous high, wait for an additional 3% confirmation to prevent false breakouts
Also, observe on-chain data—such as $BTC or $ETH USDT premium turning positive, and three consecutive days of net inflow on-chain. When these signals coincide, invest the full 5,000 margin, with a 2% stop-loss. This is true "waiting"—not frequent trading, but patient trading.
Signals like the 120-day moving average stabilizing, volume and price rising together, are everywhere and have little reference value. The key is to identify those few indicators that reveal the true intentions of the main players.
**Profit is the principal**
The 5,000 margin for opening a position is always locked and never increased. The profits earned are the real money. When the gain reaches 10%, use that 10% profit to add another 5,000, so now there are two 5,000 positions running. If the trend continues, and the account increases by 50%, it can multiply 3 to 4 times. At that point, withdraw 30% to lock in gains, and continue to follow the rest.
The logic is: always protect the initial principal, and only risk profits. Even if everything is lost, there is a bottom line.
**Avoid three market conditions**
Volatility, downward trend, hot spots. These three market states are breeding grounds for impatience. Frequent trading in volatility just earns exchange fees; holding full positions during a downward trend is suicide; chasing hot spots is just taking on the risk of being the last to buy in. Rolling positions are only suitable for clear trending markets; in ambiguous situations, stay on the sidelines.
Those who survive in the crypto world are never those who trade frequently. Knowing when not to act is more valuable than knowing how to act. Rolling positions is essentially waiting for the right timing.
**Rhythm is more important than reaction speed**
The market is always noisy, with voices calling you to enter every minute. True profit logic is never found in this chaos but in staying calm at key moments and understanding where the deep rhythm lies. Many people are not slow in operation but are trapped by market noise, busy working in a frenzy.
Understanding when to enter and exit is what makes a trader last the longest. It’s not about bravery, but about clarity. #加密市场小幅回暖
