MisterSpread

*TRUMP: INSTRUCTED TO POSTPONE ALL STRIKES AGAINST IRAN
SPY, BTC shorts closed in profit
Waiting for market open for NFXL and GOOG
ETH closed with minus
Top is still in for US stock indexes, even with Trump folding, and same levels are resistance for BTC = 74/76k and 2145 up to 2400 for ETH.
Thank you for attention to this matter!

Current trades going into a new week
GM,
Thought I’d share here as well, for free, my current trades going into this week.
Short $SPY (triggered last week after 3 weeks of waiting)
Short $NFLX (re-entered after the latest bounce and rejection)
Short $BTC (position initially started after rejecting from 74k, but added more below 72k)
Short $GOOG (talked about the sell signal flashing for the first time since Q1 2025)
Long $SOYBEAN (still long on soybeans, although we had a massive pullback)
I’m also short $ETH below $2,145 since Saturday (trade explained here as well last week)
All trades have

U.S. Big Banks Index $BKX is flashing a warning signal.
Since 2020, every major stress event has coincided with a breakdown in BKX below its 200 day SMA.
Mar2020 (COVID crash): BKX -46% / SP -34%
Feb2022 (Russia invades Ukraine): BKX -30% / SP -25%
Mar2023 (SVB collapse): BKX -33% / SP -9% (the only smaller drop)
Mar2025 (Trump's Tariffs Drama ): BKX -19% / SP -20%
Mar2026 (U.S.–Iran escalation): BKX ? / SP ~ -5% (so far)
$BTC is holding relatively well so far, adding an interesting divergence to watch, but will it last?
Historically, weakness in banks has aligned with broader financial stress

Chuck Norris never feared a margin call.
The brokers called to apologize.
RIP Legend🙏

Closing my $COPPER longs for +23% profit
GM,
This was one of the biggest allocations I had in the last 2 quarters.
I wanted to hold on to these for much longer, but the last events worldwide, show me otherwise + Price confirms that we might have a local top on metals.
P.S: Copper is sending an early signal about the global economy, so Im paying attention.
On to the next one 🫡

Let's see how Bitcoin will perform if Mag7 will drop 25-30% from last All Time Highs. 👀

What is ParadigmShift?
Last night, during the live session with Stefan, I saw many questions about my YouTube channel and the community.
So I’ll explain simply. On YouTube (paradigmshiftcrypto), I’ve posted only a few tutorials and trades. Most of the content is private for Discord members.
Many have asked me recently: "In Paradigm, do you only talk about trading or also investing?" The short answer: both.
ParadigmShift is an active community of over 3.5 years, built around education and a solid foundation, without hype or doom.
Here’s what a week in Paradigm looks like:
Monday
Macro + major m

Israel's stock market is getting close to a bearmarket
Trump might have said the war with Iran is over, but $TASE (TelAviv Stock Exchange) doesn't seem to be buying it yet.
The index dropped -17% in the last 3 days and if the 14k level goes, it officially enters a technical bear market opening the door for more lows.
Looks like the market is about to test Netanyahu's put soon, tick tock.

Looking for quants / applied mathematicians
I'm running a systematic trading model and looking for a quant / applied mathematician to help refine the signal layer and push it to the next level.
The problem involves distance metrics, slope/flatness detection and regime modelling in financial time-series.
The goal is improving overextension detection between price and dynamic reference structures.
Collaboration is profit-share based.
If this sounds like your playground, DM is open 🫡

Bitcoin history lesson
For all the people with short memories and/or pushing hopium takes about the current situation.
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th 2022, and $BTC rallied +41% over the next 40 days, before eventually dropping another 68% and finding the actual macro bottom of that bear market months later.
No, this doesn’t mean I’m expecting a repeat of 2022. Markets rarely copy-paste.
I’m simply calling a spade a spade and adding some context to the tunnel vision posts floating around.
Not me, not you, and not anyone on CT knows if this is the bottom.
Only PRICE will confirm that,

It looks like next week we gonna have Biden’s stock market again😂

How do markets move?
In a bullmarket price goes only up? No, we have pullbacks, consolidation and after prices resumes the uptrend.
So in a bearmarket you expect for price to go only down? Or we can have consolidation and bounces before the prices resumes the downtrend?
Let price lead, not emotions or noise and stay frosty!

Oh boy, here we go again - Bitcoin
Ladies and gents, fellow crypto enthusiasts, can we keep our cool a bit?
$BTC fell more than 50% and had 5 red monthly candles, so the current bounce is normal, natural, and expected.
On a closer look, the chart and levels I've shared since early February are still there and nothing has changed.
For the last four weeks, we have been in a range, and now we are testing again the upper boundary of the same range.
The timeline is already filled with bottom calls, ATHs, and all that, so here I am with the reminder that we are still in a bear market and in a downtr

Since last Friday
$VIX +37%
$DXY +1.80%
$NIKKEI -9.8%
$DAX -7.1%
Guess my VIX longs from last week (1st ones in 4 years) look pretty nice now.
Let's see how U.S markets open & what type of reaction we get on Bitcoin & alts, popcorn ready 🍿

If Iran retaliates, here’s how this can escalate:
Because I love history and since a kid I was passionate about war history, be it from SunTzu, Clausewitz, Napoleon or Barca, here is what I think can be next retaliation steps from Iran:
1. Retaliation Against Regional U.S. Assets:
This might have already started (saw some news that sirens are going off at U.S naval base in Bahrain), so I would watch the ones in Qatar, Kuwait, etc
2. Strait of Hormuz:
Iran can seek to mine waterways or attack tankers/naval assets + interfere with international shipping
3. Proxy networks:
Iran may choose indirec