Prithvir

Hyperscaler capex at $646B is
1. more than the combined military spending of Germany, France, UK, Japan, Italy, Canada ($350B)
2. equivalent to the GDP or Singapore, Sweden, Argentina ($600B)
3. Equivalent to the US bank loan growth ($700B)
4. Slightly smaller than US defense spend ($917B)
5. More than half annual growth in consumer spend ($1T)

Key Takeaways from the Federal Reserve paper:
"@Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets"
The Fed just published a 41-page working paper evaluating Kalshi as a macro forecasting tool.
They compare prediction markets to:
- Fed funds futures
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) options
- Bloomberg consensus
- Blue Chip surveys
- Survey of Market Expectations (SME)
- Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF)
1. Real-time, full distributions
Surveys give point forecasts. Infrequent. Often stale.
PMs give:
- Continuous updates
- Full probability distributions
- Intraday reactions to news
- Density

Apple is the only adult in the room
1. AirPods alone generate more revenue than all of Anthropic’s products and services combined
2. OpenAI plans to spend $100b a year to generate $14b in revenue
3. Apple will spend $1b per year to license Gemini, which will likely increase hardware sales by $20–$80b

Biggest Prediction Market movers in the last 24 hours
1. Jordan Bardella wins French presidential election: 39%
2. Fed cuts rate 25 bps at April meeting: 31%
3. Paramount takeover of Warner Bros before July: 34%
(filtered out markets w less than $100k liq and $10k vol)

To everyone who said prediction markets are just sports, here’s the CEO of a $110b company:\n\n1. Weather and temperature contracts are the most frequently traded\n2. Utilities will soon hedge electricity and natural gas contracts using these markets\n\nPrediction markets are already institutional\n\nYou’re just not paying close enough attention