Emilyvuong

📍The risk of Americans defaulting on their debts is at an all-time high
Credit card delinquency has risen to approximately 12-13%—near the peak levels after the 2008 crisis. Student loans have returned, from nearly 0% during 2021–2023 (thanks to student debt forgiveness policies), surging back to around 10% in just over a year.
Mortgage rates remain around ~1%, but they are also at the highest since post-COVID 2022. The largest debt in the financial system has not yet broken, as most borrowers are still locked into low interest rates of 2-3%.
-> Thanks to mortgages, the credit system has been

📍China officially launches 2 trade investigations against the US
📌Beijing will consider US measures believed to disrupt the global supply chain—especially in the fields of technology, semiconductors, and logistics. At the same time, China targets trade barriers against their green products, including electric vehicles, batteries, and renewable energy.
📌This move comes amid escalating trade tensions, as the US tightens control over technology and raises tariffs on Chinese goods. The administration is looking to test Trump's reaction ahead of the upcoming meeting.

Trump says he will stop attacking Iran's energy facilities for the next 10 days to negotiate.

📌 Mortgage 30Y rises to 6.43% ( from 6.30% ), returning to the highest level in 8 months. Clearly, this increases pressure on homebuyers as monthly payments rise by hundreds to thousands of USD -> enough to disqualify many from qualifying for a loan.
📌 Total mortgage applications -10.5% W/W, indicating many people are unable to afford homes at the new interest rates.
📌 Refinance -14.6% WoW -> those with existing loans have less reason to refinance since there is no cash flow freed up from lower interest rates. American consumer spending will definitely be affected.
📌 Mortgage is always an

📍US puts forth negotiation demands: US 15 points - Iran 5 points
🔸15 US demands:
1. Automatic cancellation of risk of reimposing sanctions
2. Dismantling Iran's existing nuclear capacity
3. Iran commits to "never" pursuing nuclear weapons
4. Prevent all uranium enrichment activities on Iranian territory
5. Transfer enriched uranium to IAEA
6. Cease operations and destroy Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow facilities
7. Allow IAEA access to all information
8. Iran abandons "proxy" (proxies) strategy
9. Stop funding and arming militia forces in the region
10. Ensure Strait of Hormuz remains open, not

📍 Iran allows all vessels passing through Hormuz except the United States and Israel.
All merchant vessels are permitted to pass through (except the United States and Israel) but will be charged a transit fee, potentially up to $2M per voyage and payable in Chinese yuan.
This move helps Iran avoid causing a global supply shock, and is clearly backed by both China and BRICS with the aim of pricing oil in Chinese yuan (instead of USD). This is a temporary solution. It seems the US will not accept this for long. Perhaps Trump will soon post something on Truth Social about this.

📍Bitcoin ETF saw inflows of approximately $2.5B in March this month, nearly erasing the negative capital flows since the beginning of the year (YTD)
Capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are making a strong comeback even as the price $BTC hasn't increased much from the bottom. Total inflows in March have reached around $2.5B, and just one more good session would be enough to erase the negative capital flows from the start of the year.
📌 Key highlights lie in $IBIT ETF:
- Has far surpassed the YTD negative level, returning to positive territory
- Ranked in top ~2% of ETFs with the strongest capit

📍 Japan Considers Intervening in Oil Derivatives Market Amid Strong Brent Price Surge
Japan's Ministry of Finance is reportedly approaching major banks in Tokyo engaged in oil trading activities to gather insights on market developments. This move comes as Brent prices are placing significant pressure on Japan's energy import costs.
Japan is an energy import-dependent economy, so each oil price increase directly impacts inflation and exchange rates. The fact that the Ministry of Finance is actively engaging with banks demonstrates mounting pressure, though specific intervention tools remain u

The State Bank of Vietnam continues to sell forward contracts to maintain the exchange rate. It is unclear how much will be sold this time, as Q1 has not yet ended.

📍Major US oil refinery explosion -> gasoline and diesel supply tightens further
📌 Valero refinery in Port Arthur (Texas) experiences major explosion. Capacity reaches ~435,000 barrels/day - part of the largest refinery group in the US.
📌 The incident involves the diesel processing area, will certainly directly impact gasoline and diesel supply in the market
This incident will cause gasoline and diesel prices to rise faster than crude oil prices even when crude oil prices decline.

📍Emergency withdrawal rate from US 401(k) retirement funds rises to 6% – the highest in history
📌 401(k) is a retirement savings fund, and usually no one withdraws early because it incurs penalties and taxes. The increase in the withdrawal rate to 6% indicates that more and more Americans are having to use their future savings to cover current living expenses.
📌 The reasons stem from high interest rates, rising living costs, and increasing debt pressures. This is a sign that household finances are under stress and consumer spending may weaken in the near future.

🚨 TIPS (U.S. inflation-protected bonds) show that inflation expectations have exceeded 5% over the next 1 year and above 3% over 2 years.
If this scenario occurs, the Fed will not only find it difficult to cut interest rates, but may even have to return to raising interest rates.

🚨$BTC fell below $68,000 after Trump threatened to destroy Iran's power plants.
Just 24 hours earlier, Trump said he was "considering de-escalating" the conflict with Iran.

🇺🇸 Trump says the US is considering narrowing its military campaign in Iran because it has "nearly achieved its main objectives".
In reality, the number of airstrikes has not decreased at all, and US and allied military forces continue to increase in the Middle East.
Will Trump go all the way or TACO (once again)?

🔴 Short positions are very aggressive with U.S. oil funds
IEO short interest up to 2.8% -> near 4-year high (3x compared to early 2026) while price is still +33% and heading toward all-time high levels.
Oil is a very unusual case so it's not certain that large players shorting is a guaranteed win. Remember that oil futures prices once went negative during the covid period.

🔴 US TEMPORARILY SUSPENDS IRAN OIL SANCTIONS FOR 30 DAYS
Washington has temporarily opened the valve for Iran oil.
- A 30-day exemption license allows trading of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products already on ships, effective from 3/20 to 4/19/2026.
- Objective to pump approximately 140 million barrels onto the global market.

📍SPY & Q recognize -$64B outflow in 3 months
📌 This is the largest outflow recorded within a 90-day period. Marking a sharp reversal from +$50B inflow in November.
Based on AUM, the 3-month outflow reached -5%, the highest level since Q1/2023. The peak outflow by percentage in the decade was -8% in April/2018.
📌 This scale is nearly double the peak outflow decade (2018). Even COVID 2020 or the sell-off 03-04/2025 have never witnessed outflow levels this large, no such large capital withdrawal has occurred.
📌$SPY is an ETF that tracks the S&P 500 index (500 largest U.S. companies) while $Q