#预测市场 I saw the probability of Bitcoin breaking through 100k on Polymarket drop from earlier optimistic expectations to 10%, and it immediately reminded me of the tail end of the 2017 bull market. Back then, everyone was talking about 50k, 100k, or even more absurd numbers, market sentiment was pushed to the extreme, until reality gave everyone a harsh slap in the face with an extended bear market.

Today's scenario feels somewhat familiar. Prediction of 95k probability at 32%, probability of breaking below 80k at 18% — what does this data reflect? It shows that market participants' expectations are shifting from extreme optimism toward caution. History tells us that when most people begin to question a seemingly certain target, it often means the turning point of the cycle is already within sight.

However, I should specifically note that prediction markets themselves are a double-edged sword. They reflect current market consensus, but consensus changes. I've seen countless things deemed "impossible" that eventually happened, and I've also seen "inevitable" expectations evaporate overnight. The key point is that a 10% probability doesn't mean it's impossible — rather, participants are repricing the cost of this possibility.

With 10 days remaining, we'll see how the story ends. But regardless, this shift from optimism to caution itself is already enough to make one reflect on the characteristics of this cycle.