10x Research: The purchasing power of digital treasury companies is dwindling, and the whale dumping is restricting the Bitcoin rise.

Golden Finance reported that 10x Research published an article on the X platform stating that the significant consolidation of Bitcoin will not last forever. The performance of Bitcoin is not driven by cycles, but rather determined by how much new capital enters the market to offset the exiting funds. Unlike gold, the price of Bitcoin is more dependent on the net new demand for actual inflows of assets, rather than interest rate expectations. Monitoring the supply and demand dynamics of Bitcoin provides a strong advantage for predicting the next steps in the prediction market. The current market narrative is shaped by two dominant cryptocurrency themes, and since the beginning of this summer, we have been at the forefront of these two themes. The core themes are: Digital Asset Treasury is exhausting its purchasing power, while the selling pressure from traditional holders has temporarily limited the upward potential of Bitcoin. We have long anticipated that the volatility of Bitcoin will contract after the momentum brought by the US GENIUS Act fades, causing the market to enter an “air layer” during Congress's summer recess. A slowdown in news flow is expected to suppress volatility, compress the net asset value of Bitcoin treasury companies, and limit companies like MicroStrategy from conducting aggressive stock placements and additional Bitcoin purchases, thereby naturally restricting Bitcoin's upside potential. Our prediction of a significant repricing of MicroStrategy relative to Bitcoin has come true, with its net asset value (NAV) compressed to just 1.2 times. When these analyses were published, digital asset custody companies were still regarded as untouchable, praised by service provider research teams and amplified in media reports—long before the market began to recognize the vulnerabilities we had identified. MicroStrategy now buys just tens of millions of dollars each time, rather than billions—this scale is too small to convince investors that new capital is driving the next Bitcoin rally. The second narrative limiting Bitcoin's rise is that the market is realizing that traditional wallets are selling billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin - in fact, they are selling to meet ETF demand. Since June, our analysis has shown that the selling volume of these traditional holders only matches the absorption capacity of ETFs and new market funds, which has prevented a market crash but created a new equilibrium. In this environment, Bitcoin's volatility is bound to decrease—the optimal strategy is to sell volatility, as prices are likely to maintain range-bound fluctuations.