Full Analysis: Why XRP is Falling Despite Successful ETF Launch!

The XRP price has declined nearly 11% since the launch of Canary Capital’s Spot XRP ETF (XRPC), despite the fund recording strong early demand and hundreds of millions in inflows. This price disconnect is attributed to large-scale whale selling and broader market weakness, which are currently offsetting institutional demand.

I. Reason for Price Weakness

The price fall stems from a structural imbalance between fast retail speculation/whale profit-taking and slow institutional purchasing: Whale Selling: In the 48 hours following the ETF launch, XRP whales sold approximately 200 million XRP. This massive profit-taking contributed significantly to the price drop and intensified negative market sentiment, effectively canceling out the bullish ETF effect.Broader Market Pressure: The overall cryptocurrency sector has experienced significant weakness, losing $1.1 trillion in market value over the past 41 days. This macro trend is cited as the primary external pressure on XRP.Institutional Lag: Analysts emphasize that institutional liquidity takes time to impact the underlying asset’s price. The buying process by ETF issuers is often slow and methodical (“buy slowly, on dips”), meaning the full positive effect of the inflows may not be seen until 2026.

II. Key Technical and On-Chain Indicators

Indicators suggest the market structure is fragile, but a bottom may be forming: Supply in Loss: Only 58.5% of the XRP supply is currently in profit. The remaining 41.5% of supply (approx. 26.5 billion XRP) sits at a loss, indicating a “top-heavy and structurally fragile market” dominated by late buyers.Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL): XRP’s NUPL dropped to 0.32, its lowest level in a year. Historically, such drops signal a return to the “fear/anxiety zone,” which has often marked major market bottoms.

III. Critical Support and Resistance Levels

The analysis focuses on the level that has historically signaled major reversals: Critical Support (Implicit Bottom): The $2.15 price level (at the time of writing) is approaching or has reached the NUPL indicator’s yearly low, suggesting it is a crucial area for a potential market bottom. The last time NUPL was near a yearly low, XRP saw a 96% increase in the following months (from $1.80 to $3.54).Resistance Levels: The article does not specify an immediate resistance level but focuses on the current price struggle ($$2.14 at press time) against the overriding selling pressure.

IV. Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook

Short-Term Outlook: The price is expected to remain weak and volatile as whale selling and macro pressures continue to offset the slow, methodical buying from institutional ETF issuers.Long-Term Outlook: The long-term outlook remains structurally positive due to the successful ETF launch, which provides a path for sustained institutional accumulation. The noticeable effects of this institutional capital are not expected until 2026.

V. Final Conclusion

The XRP price decline is a result of short-term profit-taking by whales coinciding with a period of broad market weakness, which has temporarily neutralized the bullish effect of substantial ETF inflows. However, the drop in the NUPL indicator to a yearly low suggests that the selling pressure is reaching exhaustion, indicating that a potential market bottom is forming and positioning XRP for a powerful rebound when the macro environment stabilizes and institutional accumulation begins to dominate.

⚠️ Important Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on technical analysis and market data. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.