Willy Woo: The market has pre-priced the quantum threat with 4 million sell pressure, and BTC price performance will continue to be overshadowed by gloomy conditions

BlockBeats News, February 16 — Renowned analyst Willy Woo stated that the 12-year valuation trend of Bitcoin relative to gold has recently been broken. Bitcoin’s relative valuation should be higher, but in reality, it has not been achieved, mainly due to market preemptively pricing in potential issues stemming from the risk of quantum computing.

Bitcoin may be patched in the future through quantum-resistant signatures, but this cannot solve the problem of approximately 4 million “lost” BTC (early lost private keys that could be cracked by quantum computers) re-entering circulation. Willy Woo estimates there is a 75% chance that these lost bitcoins will not be frozen through protocol hard forks, so the market needs to account for the 4 million sell pressure in advance.

Since MicroStrategy began accumulating BTC in 2020, the total enterprise and ETF holdings amount to only 2.8 million BTC. These 4 million lost tokens are equivalent to 8 years of enterprise accumulation, which could cause serious supply dilution. Before “Q-Day” (the day quantum computing threats are realized, estimated to be 5-15 years from now), BTC prices will continue to be affected by this cloud.