Obstacles abound! The U.S. military still "dare not" escort through the Strait of Hormuz

Over a week has passed since the outbreak of the Iran-U.S. conflict, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly paralyzed. Although Trump has publicly stated multiple times that the United States is ready to escort passing ships at any time, the U.S. Navy has yet to fulfill its escort commitments, and the shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz continues to deepen.

The G7 held an emergency online summit to coordinate responses to the blockade crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Xinhua News Agency, French President Macron called on G7 members at the start of the summit on the 11th to coordinate actions to restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. Meanwhile, the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to ease global energy supply pressures.

However, beyond political statements, the actual navigation difficulties in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. Reuters reports that since the start of U.S.-Israel military actions against Iran, the U.S. Navy has almost daily refused escort requests from the shipping industry, citing the current high risk of attack. This starkly contrasts with Trump’s repeated public statements that “the U.S. is ready to escort ships at any time.”

According to Lloyd’s List analysis, even if escort plans are eventually implemented, under the most optimistic scenario, the number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily would be less than 10% of normal levels. The global energy supply chain faces significant short-term pressure that is unlikely to be substantially alleviated.

The Strait of Hormuz carries about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil transportation, as well as large volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. Since the start of U.S.-Israel military actions, shipping in the strait has nearly come to a halt, with hundreds of ships stranded at anchor, and global oil prices have surged to their highest levels since 2022.

Escort commitments fall short, Navy and White House statements conflict

According to Wallstreetcn, Trump publicly stated on March 3 that the U.S. was prepared to provide naval escort to ships as needed to restore normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. He reiterated recently at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago in Florida: “When the time is right, the U.S. Navy and its partners will escort oil tankers through the strait.”

However, Reuters reports that the U.S. Navy has explicitly told regular briefings with the shipping and oil industries that it currently cannot provide escort services. Shipping companies are almost daily requesting escorts, but the Navy’s stance remains unchanged—escort only when the risk of attack is reduced.

This internal and external contradiction has become more apparent this week. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wray posted on social media Tuesday that the U.S. Navy had “successfully escorted” a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, then deleted the post. The White House quickly confirmed that no escort operation had actually taken place. A U.S. official also told Reuters that the U.S. military has not yet escorted any commercial ships through the strait.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army General Dan Caine, said Tuesday that the U.S. military has begun studying “a series of options” for escorting ships after receiving orders, but actual deployment is still some way off.

Even if escort operations are carried out, the volume of ships passing through will remain below 10% of normal levels

According to eight security experts from the Navy and commercial operations consulted by Lloyd’s List, even if escort plans are implemented, the daily number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz would be strictly limited to less than 10% of normal.

The report states that normally, about 45 to 50 oil tankers pass through the Strait daily. A basic escort plan would require 8 to 10 destroyers, escorting 5 to 10 commercial ships at a time. Due to the narrowness of the strait, simultaneous two-way escort is nearly impossible; initial plans will prioritize outbound shipments to alleviate export backlog in the Middle East Gulf region.

Jane’s Naval Intelligence senior analyst Mike Plunket said:

“We’re obviously not talking about the scale of the Atlantic convoy in World War II, because the waterway here is extremely constrained. You simply cannot have 30 oil tankers passing at once, nor enough escorts to protect them all. It’s probably about four or five tankers with two or three escorts.”

Furthermore, both the U.S. and the EU have yet to commit specific assets, and any escort operation depends on the arrival of more U.S. Navy destroyers in the Middle East Gulf region.

European plans still in “very preliminary” stage

It is worth noting that although French President Macron announced on the 9th that 11 ships would be deployed to the Eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz, he did not disclose specific timelines or mission details. He emphasized that these actions would be “purely defensive and escort missions,” only to be launched after the “most intense phase of the conflict ends.”

The report indicates that the EU is evaluating whether to extend the current naval deployment of the “Aspides” (Aspides) operation in the Red Sea to include escort duties in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Lloyd’s List, discussions are currently in a “very preliminary” stage and require approval from the member states’ political and security committees. Even if politically authorized, the EU may only escort ships with commercial ties to the EU or carrying EU-bound cargo.

Iran’s asymmetric threats remain the biggest obstacle

Although Trump publicly claimed that Iran’s naval forces have been “virtually destroyed,” security experts generally believe that Iran’s threats to shipping mainly come from asymmetric means, including anti-ship missiles, drones, fast boat swarms, explosive unmanned boats, and mines.

Reports warn that even if escort systems are established, it does not necessarily mean that casualties from Iranian attacks will cease entirely.

Mine threats are considered the greatest risk for long-term closure of the strait— even a small number of mines laid could halt all shipping and significantly complicate any efforts to reopen the strait.

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