Fed Up with Daily Swings, Energy Hedge Funds Build Trump-Agnostic Trading Strategy

Middle East conflict triggers sharp market volatility; some hedge funds are tired of Trump’s noise and are focusing on structural opportunities in energy stocks.

Renaud Saleur, CEO of Geneva-based boutique energy hedge fund Anaconda, said, the fund has decided to ignore Trump’s series of statements about the conflict to avoid being overwhelmed by signals and instead focus on more certain structural positions.

Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, the fund has been increasing its holdings in the oil services sector, with a year-to-date return of about 35%. Saleur bluntly states:

Trump’s comments have an unmanageable impact on stocks and derivatives markets; he can change his stance ten times in a day.

Since the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict began on February 28, Trump’s statements on targets and duration have shifted multiple times, causing significant market swings.

Day trading is nearly impossible; the fund shifts to long-term positions in oil services

Renaud Saleur said that since the Iran conflict erupted, the fund has been steadily increasing its holdings in oil service companies, currently managing about $150 million.

Within this framework, throughout March, Anaconda has been continuously buying shares of U.S. drilling technology company Baker Hughes and Norwegian shipping company Frontline.

Meanwhile, the fund also maintains positions in SLB and other oil tanker, drilling, and engineering stocks. Saleur states that the fund has held a bullish stance on energy stocks and futures since December last year. He said:

The market is extremely chaotic, and it will take months or even years for the situation to settle.

Todd Warren, a member of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Investment Team and portfolio manager, also finds the current market environment challenging. Warren said:

When the market swings at this speed based on tweets and headlines, day trading becomes nearly impossible.

However, he believes one aspect is becoming clearer:

Given the rising risk premium for conflicts, crude oil prices are likely to be significantly higher than pre-war levels, but when and how they stabilize remains uncertain.

In terms of specific positioning, Tribeca plans to build its largest position in Australian energy company Woodside in the second half of 2025. It reduced some holdings last week, but Warren still considers the stock “severely undervalued by the market.”

Additionally, Tribeca is selectively buying shares of U.S. oil and gas exploration company Expand Energy.

Warren describes it as a company with “the largest onshore natural gas production base in the U.S.” and emphasizes that the strategic value of natural gas as a transitional fuel remains supported by strong demand.

Avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, betting on undervalued assets outside South American supply chains

Armina Rosenberg, co-founder of Sydney-based hedge fund Minotaur Capital, approaches from a geopolitical perspective, focusing on energy companies in South America.

Armina Rosenberg believes these companies can deliver oil and gas to buyers without passing through the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea, thereby naturally avoiding the impact of conflicts on shipping routes.

After the conflict erupted, Minotaur bought shares of Parex Resources, Geopark, and Gran Tierra Energy. Rosenberg said:

Colombian oil producers are currently among the lowest-valued stocks in the entire market.

She also clearly outlined her exit strategy:

I will not sell unless oil prices fall significantly below $75 per barrel.