The crude oil market faces long-term uncertainty, Japanese capital experiences net outflows, the currency continues to weaken over the long term, Chinese real estate stabilizes, and manufacturing profits recover—0326 Macro Summary

During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, oil prices surged twice due to geopolitical risks and Western sanctions. Under the current US-Iran conflict, the crude oil market needs to incorporate long-term geopolitical premiums, and the persistent tail risk expectations will reshape the trading logic of crude oil, driving the international oil price center to substantially rise over a longer period.

Japan has long been a net capital outflow economy, with its financial account in deficit in most years. From the current account perspective, a surplus does not necessarily reflect genuine foreign exchange demand, which is a key reason for the yen’s long-term weakness.

The global interest rate center has shifted upward, with bond pressure decreasing in the order of Japanese bonds, European bonds, US bonds, and Chinese bonds. For Chinese bonds, the real estate financial attributes have largely faded, and profits and prices in mid-to-lower stream manufacturing are expected to recover. Household balance sheets are tending to stabilize.