Qianfan Constellation "Arrow Snatching" Battle: The Bottleneck Crisis in Satellite Networking

On the evening of April 7, at China’s Hainan commercial launch site, the Long March 8 rocket successfully put another batch of Yixin satellite constellation network satellites into orbit.

This launch is the seventh batch of constellation network satellites for the Qianfan Constellation, with a total of 18 satellites. By this point, the total number of constellation network satellites launched by the Qianfan Constellation has reached 126 (excluding the 4 experimental satellites launched before 2024).

Long March 8 rocket-satellite payloads in transit, photo source / Beidou Yuheng

This was Qianfan’s first launch this year; since the last constellation network launch (2025.10.17), 6 months have already passed. Yixin aims to complete the deployment of 15k satellites in orbit by 2030, but it faces an increasingly severe challenge:

There aren’t enough usable commercial rockets

The Qianfan Constellation (Qianfan Constellation) is a large satellite internet constellation that China is building, with Shanghai Yixin Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. (Yixin Satellite) as the lead operator. The plan is to provide seamless coverage for users worldwide, with lower latency, higher capacity, and lower cost satellite broadband internet services.

Qianfan Constellation network deployment summary, photo source / Grey Plane Wiki

Since the first business-satellite launch in August 2024, the Qianfan Constellation has completed 7 launches in total. The interval between launches has been as short as 2 months and as long as half a year. Although in recent years Yixin Satellite has conducted multiple tender solicitations for launch services, the final outcomes have not been satisfactory, and launch payload capacity has become the most critical bottleneck constraining its sprinting speed.

China’s heavy-lift commercial rocket models and quantities are limited (due to factors such as production capacity, etc.). Among the few commercial rockets capable of launching satellite-internet constellation networking, most are used by another large internet constellation, GW. The number of rockets that can launch the Qianfan Constellation is extremely limited.

The same is true for Xingwang: it also began launching business satellites and building a constellation network in 2024. To date, it has launched 188 satellites in total (22 experimental satellites + 3 high-orbit business satellites + 163 low-orbit business satellites), with 184 satellites actually in orbit.

“Can’t get rockets, constellation construction speed can’t meet expectations—maybe this is the reality they have no choice but to face.” Industry insiders close to Qianfan’s business operations also feel helpless.

Qianfan’s official plan shows that in the first phase it plans to deploy 648 satellites to achieve regional network coverage; in the second phase it will add another 648 satellites to achieve global coverage; ultimately, it aims to complete launching 15,000 satellites for constellation networking by 2030.

Scarce launch resources, a deadlock in large-scale constellation networking

In recent years, various constellations planned by Chinese commercial space companies have been growing rapidly like spring bamboo shoots. Besides Yixin, there are other constellations of varying sizes under planning.

Demand for launch services like the Qianfan Constellation has surged explosively, but the commercial rocket supply that matches it has lagged badly. The main reasons include, but are not limited to:

Objective constraints during ramping up production capacity. Commercial rockets—especially medium- and large-lift rockets—have long development, manufacturing, and testing cycles, and supply chains are complex. Although several major domestic commercial rocket companies have made rapid progress and achieved multiple successful launches, their annual production capacity is still gradually ramping up, and they have not yet formed a stable, batch “off-the-shelf” supply capability.

Trade-offs in allocation of “national team” resources. The “national team” commercial rocket models are reliable options, but due to various factors, the number of available commercial launch opportunities for them is limited, and there are also service priority issues that require coordination. In addition, the production capacity of “national team” commercial rockets is also limited, and it must balance scientific and national missions, so it cannot fully satisfy the surging commercial demand.

Stricter launch approval and management. On one hand, commercial rocket launches in China require passing through planned approval procedures. On the other hand, the main theme in recent years has been: safety is the prerequisite for development. Once problems occur (such as failures or accidents), often a process of learning from one case and separating out issues needs to be done; objectively, this also slows the launch pace.

Compared with the past few years, China’s satellite internet has been accelerating, but behind constellation networking launches like Qianfan’s, the situation of “waiting for the rice (the rocket) to be cooked” may reflect the industry’s widespread anxiety at present.

Even if rockets can be bought, launch plans may still be forced to adjust due to various force majeure factors, directly affecting constellation deployment timelines and the pacing of subsequent financing—and even more likely to miss market windows.

According to introductions from industry insiders, even top satellite-constellation parties are doing everything they can to think of solutions, including but not limited to planning construction of “constellation-dedicated” launch pads; binding deep cooperation with rocket companies; and extending upstream in multiple forms.

Ensuring that one’s own constellation plan has dedicated or priority launch access is becoming as important as satellite technology itself.

The name of the Qianfan Constellation is often interpreted by outsiders as a beautiful implication of “constellations advancing in great numbers.” 2026 is a key year for its “scalable deployment.” If there were more supply of commercial rockets, China’s satellite internet construction could gain some speed.

That would be when China’s era of low-orbit constellations truly welcomes constellations advancing in great numbers.

Source of this article: Space Those Things

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