Why do copper prices always "seem to follow the right logic but still fail to make money"? [Peifengke Master Class 3.2]

A Preview of the Great Content

A lot of the copper price action, in hindsight, looks “very reasonable.”

In 2017, China’s PMI peaked, so copper should have fallen;

In 2019, the Federal Reserve cut rates, so copper seemed like it should have risen;

In 2020, cost support was there, so prices shouldn’t keep falling;

In 2022, after the rate hikes were implemented, many people were still waiting for demand to recover……

But when you’re actually in it, you’ll find something quite counterintuitive:

Each piece of logic looks right on its own, but prices often “follow a different logic.”

Because copper has never been trading a single variable—it’s in different stages, being taken over by completely different sets of logic:

Sometimes it’s dominated by China’s demand;

Sometimes it’s the global PMI passing the baton;

Sometimes rate-cut expectations are priced in ahead of time;

And sometimes, a single liquidity shock can directly break through all “cost support.” It may not be that you misread things; it may be that the logic you’re using is already no longer the one the market is using right now.

So the questions are:

When China and the U.S./Europe diverge, who should you trust?

If rate-cut expectations have already been priced in, will prices still be able to rise?

When macro shocks arrive, does cost support actually matter in the end?

Among these “gray-area judgments,” which set of logic should you bet on?

In this section, Peifengke Chen Dapeng will use the key turning points from 2017–2022 to show you the real path of logic switching behind copper prices.

Click here or the course schedule below to unlock the full course and see where that step of “you were right but didn’t make money” actually went wrong.