Ceasefire agreement just signed and torn apart? The script for this show was written long ago.


If you think this ceasefire is sudden, what's even more sudden is — it’s falling apart even faster.
On the first day of the ceasefire, Israel’s airstrikes escalate; Iran directly retaliates: closing the Strait of Hormuz + threatening military action. The pace is faster than short videos.
Many people will ask:
If they’re going to fight, why stop?
The answer is very blunt:
Ceasefire is a tactic, not a strategy.
Its only three purposes are:
👉 Buy time
👉 Test the other side’s bottom line
👉 Give the market a “stability expectation”
But the problem is, this time all parties are clearly “not on the same script.”
The US hopes to cool down, Israel continues military operations, Iran demands conditions be met. The three goals are different, and the only result is — the ceasefire becomes a formality.
Iran’s response this time is actually very critical.
It’s not an immediate full-scale counterattack, but a choice:
Closing the Strait + issuing a deterrence statement.
What does this indicate?
👉 Not ready for full-scale war yet
👉 But prepared for long-term strategic game
In other words, we are now entering:
“Controlled conflict phase”
But this phase is the hardest for the market.
Because:
No clear negative signals → afraid to fall sharply
No real positive signals → afraid to rise sharply
So, the recent scene you’ve seen will occur:
Upward movement driven by sentiment, downward movement driven by reality.
As for the talks on the 11th?
More like “talk if possible, if not, then forget it.”
The focus isn’t on the negotiations, but on the actions before the talks.
A one-sentence summary of the current situation:
It’s not war escalation, but strategic game escalation.
Comment section predictions:
Will this evolve into a “long-term attrition war”? #美伊停火协议谈判再生变故