#BrentReturnsTo100

Brent Returns To 100 On Red Sea Tanker Hit

Brent crude has crossed 100 dollars per barrel again for first time since May after Houthi forces claimed hit on two Saudi oil tankers in Red Sea.

News now: At about 8 pm IST Thursday, Brent traded at 100.79 per barrel up about 7 percent with intraday high at 101.01. WTI rose near 6 percent to 91.83. Front month Sep Brent at 100.69 up 7 percent. This five day rally has added about 20 percent in two weeks. Trigger was Houthi claim that they struck two Saudi tankers in Bab el Mandeb Strait after declaring naval block on Saudi shipments. UK Maritime Trade confirmed at least one tanker hit 70 miles off Saudi coast with fire onboard but no loss of life. Several vessels have turned away or delayed Red Sea transit.

Why this matters: Bab el Mandeb carries about 12 percent of world seaborne oil and 7 percent of global oil. It became Saudi main export route after Strait of Hormuz flows fell sharply since Feb. Now both chokes are under strain. Hormuz still handles about 20 percent of world energy but traffic is far below pre war. Kazakh loadings at Caspian Pipeline terminal also cut after drone hit, and Indian refiners paused Iraqi loads on ship risk. Russian fuel exports stay tight after drone hits on refineries. So supply squeeze is not one point but three points at once.

Market effect: US energy shares rose pre market, Exxon up 1.6 percent, Chevron up 1.7 percent, Devon and Occidental up 2 to 2.5 percent, refiners Valero and Marathon up 2.1 to 2.6 percent. Broader stocks fell, Dow down 548 points or 1.1 percent, S and P down 1.4 percent, Nasdaq down 2.5 percent. 10 year yield pushed to 4.695 percent highest since Jan 2025, 2 year at 4.334 percent, 30 year above 5 percent. July Fed hike odds jumped to 33.7 percent from 12 percent week ago. BTC slipped to near 65500, cap 1.33T, dominance up to 59 percent, fear reading 33. Gold bid to 4121 as safe haven.

Logical view: Goldman says Brent could hold 100 plus through July and Aug and risk 120 if Hormuz stays disrupted into Q4. Fitch sees Brent at 100 to 110 in June to July then down to 80 in Aug and 70 from Sep if strait reopens end July. Barclays kept 100 for 2026 but risks up. Each month of Hormuz closure adds about 10 to 15 dollars to Brent per Enverus. Physical market is loose in book but delivery is tight. That gap keeps price bid.

Real idea: For traders, watch event risk not chart only. Ceasefire talk, Hormuz transit count, OPEC plus emergency move, and Red Sea ship flow are true triggers. Define risk by event not just price. Oil up at 100 lifts inflation fear and may keep Fed hawkish, which can weigh on tech and crypto short term but lift energy.

Bottom line: Brent returns to 100 on Red Sea tanker attack that widens supply fear beyond Hormuz. WTI near 92 confirms move. Until ship flows via Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb resume, Brent likely stays 95 to 110 with high vol.