$BTC My macro bottom call, in one trade
Just a quick one because despite some explanation there are still some (new) people confused as to why I still hold on to the 60k level as my "bottom call level".
The answer is quite simply the difference between actual trading and engagement farming. Where the engagement farmer tries to talk about the bottom with repeated posts of vague and broad levels and numbers, with the sheer goal of trying to be right ("we will rally", "we will go higher from here", "the low is forming", "I closed my shorts" etc etc). Just to be able to tell you "I told you so", without any actual positions mentioned or taken.
X is a lot about engagement farming, it after all is what generates traffic, all power to the engagement farmer.
But since we aim to trade this market optimally, that is not of our interest.
So let's not identify ourselves with that. Let's not try to aim to "call the 60k bottom perfectly" and then morph posts in ways that may look good after the fact, just trying to be right and nothing else, whilst deleting old wrong tweets and what not.
Let's just treat this bottom call like any other call, a proper live call with realistic (but bold) expectations. The same way a proper trade works, which I framed so on the chart below.
60k is my estimate, 50k is where I no longer believe my bottom call is correct, and new ath's is where I make money.
That's 6.5+ in "loss-to-gain" ratio, a large amount. It is indeed a bold and aggressive call, made since Feb.
Framing it like this is how actual gains come to fruition, especially when only a small minority believes in it, sticks to it and aligns their capital with it.
This is of course not a trade I took in the literal sense, this is a virtual trade. No one taking these markets seriously takes a long trade like this, you would lose a third of the gains in funding. It merely represents my spot plan, and weekly bottom bias (different to weekly bias, weekly bias can incorporate countertrend rallies along the way).
Locally, things can change, I can call this plan off earlier for good reasons, or hold through slightly longer for more risk, although also only for very good reason only.
So with this, all doubts and unclarity of how I view and go about a live bottom call, are lifted.
The goal is not to call the bottom in an aggressively down trending market to "scalp" a 100x long on that. Again you lose most profits in funding so there is no real added value in that.
So although it looks pretty, there is no need to nail a bottom perfectly to make money consistently. In reality, it only helps to create engagement and morph expectations.
Reality check in place, plan in place and the trades continue.
