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#Polymarket每日热点
Do I think Elon Musk will win his lawsuit against OpenAI? The outcome is "no," meaning Musk will lose the case.
My reasoning is:
1. Questionable standing to sue: Musk filed a "violation of charitable trust" lawsuit as an individual donor, but under California law, ordinary donors usually lack standing to sue unless they can prove a "special interest." Although the judge cited a 1964 precedent allowing the case to proceed to trial, experts generally believe this interpretation is broad, and the legal basis remains weak.
2. Lack of key evidence: OpenAI argues that it never promised to remain a nonprofit permanently, and the restructuring plan has been approved by the California and Delaware attorneys general, providing regulatory backing. Meanwhile, Musk's side lacks direct evidence such as written agreements to prove that the original nonprofit commitment was legally binding.
3. Difficulties in obtaining relief: Even if the jury finds OpenAI liable, the judge has made it clear that the final remedy will be at their discretion, and may only involve returning Musk's original investment (about $38–45 million) plus interest, rather than his main demands—removing Altman, dissolving the for-profit structure, or restoring the nonprofit status.
My usual betting strategy is to "buy the dip" when the probability of losing is relatively low, and sell when the probability is higher, engaging in swing trading.