AxelAdlerJr

The market has been compressed for the last two days.

This is the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model, calibrated to Bitcoin's live circulating supply.
The lower bound of the model is now below $59K that is RP Alive. This is the zone where bottom formation can begin. But this is not a one or two week process. The base case is roughly six months.
And the core thesis remains the same: real demand is formed only over the long term. Not on emotion, not on local bounces, but when the market starts to see forward-looking value again. In other words, when genuine spot demand begins to return.

Good morning, folks.
This week, several prominent voices with 500K+ followers declared that Bitcoin has bottomed. Bold call. The chart below shows a regime model calibrated across four complete cycles. In every single one, Bitcoin's bear market ended only after entering a Strong Bear phase. That phase has not appeared in the current cycle.
Draw your own conclusions.

Bitcoin recovered from $66K to $79K in April.
But Regime Score ended the month back in the Bear zone.
7D cumulative funding hit -659 bps, the lowest level of the past year. Price recovered. Structure did not.
Full breakdown in today's Morning Brief #160 👇

On April 24, BTC climbed to $78K. That same day, Realized Loss hit $5.97B. Loss-making holders used the rebound to exit.
Realized Profit: $4.09B - no euphoria. The market is not overheated.
But the overhang of loss-making supply has not been cleared yet.
☕️ Adler AM 158 👇