AxelAdlerJr

Deep bear-market corrections do not begin at the price top.
They begin when unrealized profit starts to compress within the 6M-10Y cohort.
The adjusted LTH MVRV model catches that break before price does - here is how to spot the early stage and what it says about the current cycle.
SQL of the Week #022👇

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to a one-month high of 4.57% as renewed U.S. airstrikes on Iran pushed oil prices higher, fueling inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of further interest rate hikes.

Brent jumped to $76 a barrel and gained more than 6% after the U.S. launched new airstrikes on Iran and revoked the waiver that had allowed the country to sell oil on global markets.

The crypto market’s fuel tank is running low.
Stablecoin inflows to exchanges are 31% below the yearly norm. USDT and USDC market cap is shrinking by more than $3B a month.
Morning Brief #208 👇

Strategy sold 3,588 BTC - the largest sale in its history, worth $216 million.
But price held above fair value at $63K.
The reaction showed up not in price, but in derivatives: the futures index dropped into the bear zone.
Morning Brief #207 👇

Bitcoin is in the late stage of the bear cycle, but the ETF segment has for the first time signaled that the pressure is easing. In the latest trading session, spot BTC ETFs in the US posted a net inflow of $223 million.
Most of the demand went into FBTC (+$166 million) and ARKB (+$91.8 million).

Today, gold rose to $4,172 an ounce, extending gains from the previous session as weak US labor market data reduced expectations of further Fed tightening.
In June, the US economy added just 57,000 jobs - the weakest reading in four months and well below the forecast of 110,000, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.2%.
A day earlier, the ADP private payrolls report also came in weaker than expected.
Against this backdrop, the market lowered its estimate of the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to about 60%, down from 75% before the payrolls data was released.

Kevin Warsh at the ECB forum: inflation expectations and risks have eased in recent weeks, but the Fed remains firmly committed to price stability. There will be no public guidance on rates - this is now the Fed's new communication line.

Over the past 24 hours, bulls pushed the market higher aggressively.
But over that same period, open interest contracted by 22,000 BTC.
That is the key divergence. Buyers are pressing, but no new leverage is coming into the market. This is what a bounce driven by position closures looks like.
Why the current move lacks fuel - in Morning Brief #204 👇

LTH are holding a record 16.1M BTC.
LTH MVRV has compressed to 1.24 - the lowest level in 3 years.
Price is weakening, but long-term holders are not selling.
The market is approaching the final phase of the bear cycle.
Morning Brief #202 👇

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a voting FOMC member in 2026, said that signs of broader inflationary pressure led him to project one rate hike by the end of 2026 in his June forecast, instead of the rate cut he had previously expected.
According to Kashkari, the risks are tied not only to the Middle East but also to broader pro-inflationary factors. Further decisions will depend on incoming macro data. Market summaries of his comments also reflected the view that rates could remain unchanged in 2027.