Bit_Bull

🚨 BITCOIN IS AT A DECISION POINT RIGHT NOW.
Short-term holder data is starting to turn positive, showing early signs of a shift in market behavior.
The STH-SOPR is moving back above 1, which usually means recent buyers are back in profit and selling pressure is easing.
This is where markets often move from accumulation into early bullish phases.
But there is one key level to watch, the STH Realized Price.
If Bitcoin fails to break above it and gets rejected again, this move can fade quickly and downside risk comes back.
Early signs are improving, but this is not a confirmed bull trend yet.
$B

LONG-TERM HOLDERS ARE SELLING THIS PUMP 🚨
As $BTC moved from $78K to $80K, the 2–3 year cohort ramped up selling hard.
Over $209M/hour in profits were realized at the peak.
These are pre-ETF buyers locking in 60–100% gains.
This move up is being used as exit liquidity.

$BTC bear flag is very close to completion.
I already talked about the possibility of a breakout above $80K, and that has happened.
Soon, I'll start building shorts with a target around $60K-$62K.

Alts aren't looking good here.
Imagine if $BTC starts to dump from here...

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Everybody is convinced that $60K was the bottom.
And that's why we will go lower.
How many people were convinced that $16K was the bottom in 2022?
A very few and that's when $BTC bottomed.

$BTC bull trap is here.
New lows are coming in Q2.

🚨 Bitcoin’s drop was not random.
Leverage got flushed in thin weekend liquidity.
The chart shows open interest falling from recent highs while $BTC slipped back near $76.7K.
That means leveraged positions were getting closed or liquidated as price moved down.
Weekend order books are thinner because institutions and major liquidity providers are less active.
So even normal selling can hit harder, trigger liquidations, and create a sharper downside move.

ETH/BTC looks very weak here.
IMO, a 15%-20% dump in Q2 is highly likely.

🚨 Bitcoin is rising, but traders are still betting small.
The chart shows BTC grinding back toward $70K+, yet 1-month implied volatility on upside strikes remains low, especially in the $100K to $160K area highlighted on the right.
That means traders are not paying up for big breakout bets right now.
Speculation is still muted even with price recovering.
In simple terms: Bitcoin is moving higher, but the options market still does not believe in a major upside move.
That usually means leverage for bullish traders is still historically cheap if $BTC keeps climbing.

$BTC almost entered my short zone.
$80K-$82K is my preferred short zone and this is the level where people will become max bullish.
What will happen next is obvious.

$BTC is right into its strongest selling zone.
The next big move from here is to the downside, not upside.

🚨 Bitcoin just flashed one of the strongest bullish setups on the chart right now.
Glassnode’s Vector framework shows Price Momentum at 1, well above the +0.5 level that historically signals bullish trend strength.
At the same time, the Risk Index has fully reset to 0, which means momentum is improving without overheated conditions.
That combination has often appeared before major upside phases, while also helping avoid deeper crash periods.
In simple terms: momentum is strong, but risk is still low.
Worst case scenario: if momentum loses strength and drops back below key levels, this can tur