DanielRomero

SEMIANALYSIS: Anthropic To Reach $1B in Operating Profit in Q3
This is extremely bullish for the AI supercycle if true
Would be the first solid confirmation that investing in AI compute can, in fact, be profitable

SEMIANALYSIS: Anthropic To Reach $1B in Operating Profit in Q3
This is extremely bullish for the AI supercycle if true
Would be the first solid confirmation that investing in AI compute can, in fact, be profitable

BofA believes cheaper Chinese open-weight models are bullish for semis
By lowering the cost of intelligence, they expand usage and broaden deployment, increasing demand for compute, memory, networking, and power infrastructure
The bigger risk is to model economics, not semiconductor demand

BofA on memory
BofA reiterates its $1550 $MU price target, with Micron as its top memory pick
Memory now represents 35–40% of cloud AI capex, 2–3x historical levels, yet memory stocks still trade at sub-10x forward P/E
BofA believes the market is underestimating the transition toward longer-duration agreements and more predictable pricing
As memory evolves from a cyclical commodity to a strategic AI enabler, multiples should expand

BofA’s Vivek Arya says the current pullback is a healthy reset, not a structural change in AI demand
Near term, he favors lower-beta names such as $NVDA, $TXN, $ADI, $CDNS, and $SNPS
However, BofA expects renewed momentum after a period of consolidation

BofA expects global AI infrastructure capex to reach $1.5T by 2027, up 30–50% YoY
Analyst Vivek Arya expects renewed momentum in 2H26 from memory ($MU), compute ($AMD, $INTC), and semicap ($AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC, $TER), optics ($MTSI) and networking ($CRDO, $MRVL)

Hyperscaler capex is expected to hit 50% of revenue this year
Capex rising faster than revenue is not sustainable indefinitely, which means there are two possible scenarios:
- Revenue starts rising on a relative basis once hyperscalers achieve good ROI on capex
- Hyperscalers will need to slow down capex if ROI is not high enough

$SPCX analyst price targets are a bit shocking
Morgan Stanley’s target implies a $4T market cap

$WULF is now below where it was before signing the new Anthropic deal
The main reasons:
1) Overall neocloud weakness lately
2) The sale of its Abernathy stake
This deal had some of the best economics across WULF’s portfolio. The market is probably concerned about how WULF was executing on that site, and whether financing has dried up to the point where the company is being forced to raise capital by selling stakes in its sites
Instead, management frames the sale as a strategic choice to free up executive time and recycle capital into much more profitable wholly owned sites
TeraWulf put $450 mi

The market just decided to ignore that Samsung trades at less than 6x annualized operating profit (BEFORE Q3 AND Q4 DRAM PRICE HIKES)
All because revenue was slightly below consensus

JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka says the recent weakness in semiconductor stocks should be used as a buying opportunity
“The risks of renewed flareups remain, but we believe one should keep using any dips on the back of adverse geopolitical headlines in order to add,” wrote Matejka.
The firm’s preferred tech positioning is "semis over hyperscalers over AI at risk plays," with JPMorgan adding that "the latest weakness in SOX and in Korea will be used as an opportunity to add, as semis upcycle is not peaking anytime soon, meaningful supply is not likely to arrive before 2028."
On the Magnific

Samsung Electronics 2Q26 earnings:
→ Revenue: KRW171.0T (+129% YoY)
→ Operating Profit: KRW89.4T (+1,812% YoY)
→ Operating Margin: 52.3%
Revenue slightly missed consensus:
→ KRW171.0T vs KRW172.181T expected
→ Miss: KRW1.18T, or 0.7%
But operating profit beat:
→ KRW89.4T vs KRW87.3T expected
→ Beat: KRW2.1T, or 2.4%
Sequentially, vs 1Q26 guidance:
→ Revenue: +28.6% QoQ
→ Operating Profit: +56.3% QoQ

Goldman Sachs raised its $AMD price target from $450 to $640, while keeping the stock as one of its preferred long ideas in semiconductors
The firm warns that after the massive rally, much of the good news may already be priced into the sector, with AMD being one of the exceptions
Goldman expects server CPU demand to drive AMD’s quarterly earnings above expectations, even if PCs remain weaker. It also sees AMD’s 2027 EPS coming in 13% above consensus, supporting the aggressive price target hike

Power semiconductors are already increasing in price before 1MW racks even arrive
This is happening before the industry reaches 1MW rack architectures
Those will arrive later with platforms like NVIDIA Feynman and AMD’s MI500 rack-scale systems
Rubin Ultra is already expected to push rack power toward roughly 600kW+, but even the arrival of Vera Rubin, at around 225kW per rack, is enough to create a demand shock across the power semiconductor supply chain
These are the price hikes reported so far:
> Infineon: second 2026 price increase, effective July 1, covering selected power products
> Te

$TSM is building a Taiwan-based supply chain
The goal is to reduce supply-chain risk, shorten qualification cycles, and make sure TSMC is not dependent on one global supplier for every component
> This is really bullish for Taiwanese small-cap semicaps
TSMC is evaluating both global and local suppliers for future CoPoS and panel-level packaging lines, with Taiwanese names like Gudeng, Mirle, Scientech, GPTC, Utechzone, VisEra and GPM reportedly involved
AI semiconductors are becoming less constrained by wafer capacity alone. Bottlenecks are moving into CoWoS, CoPoS, chemicals, plating additiv

BofA expects $AAPL to try to use CXMT DRAM to increase its bargaining power with Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung
Good luck with that...

$NBIS has leased 18 MW of power from MERLIN Edged at its Madrid-Getafe data center, marking Nebius’ first entry into the Spanish market
MERLIN $MRLN is also the landlord for $CRWV in Spain
CoreWeave is using MERLIN Edged’s Barcelona data center, where it has leased 15 MW to host 10,224 NVIDIA H200 GPUs, with plans to expand with Blackwell systems in 2026
CoreWeave has also leased capacity from MERLIN in Álava/Bilbao-Arasur, bringing its total Spanish lease with MERLIN to around 40 MW across Barcelona and Álava
MERLIN is now moving into Phase III of its data center plan, where it expects to inv