🔥 ETF funds flow back, but the rebound foundation is not solid

US Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs ended this week’s streak of 8 consecutive weeks of outflows, with total net inflows of $281.8 million. But don’t get too excited—Bitcoin ETFs only recovered 2.4% of the $8.26 billion outflows accumulated over the previous 8 weeks, while Ethereum ETFs recovered around 7%. This looks more like a technical rebound after a deep dip than a trend reversal.
More worrying is that the market value of holdings by Bitcoin Treasury companies has evaporated by over $100 billion, but the amount of holdings has increased to 1.14 million coins—adding has been concentrated in the high range of $75,000 to $125,000. After entering the undervalued range in May, buying slowed significantly, with Strategy taking the lead in cutting holdings. If more Treasury companies follow suit due to financial pressure, it will create additional selling pressure.
Retail investors’ pace of buying US stocks has also fallen to the lowest level since 2020; over the past month, net purchases were only $13 billion. Retail holding totals remain high, but net buying has been compressed, suggesting market sentiment is cautious and funds have not truly flowed back into crypto.
Rebound signals need more confirmation: whether inflows can be sustained, whether Treasury companies continue to reduce holdings, and whether retail sentiment improves. The current structural fragility means that any macro headwind could cause this rebound to fade quickly.
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