#SpaceX静默期结束 The 25-day quiet period after SpaceX's IPO has ended. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan and Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas have issued research reports, both giving SpaceX an initial "Buy" rating.
However, the two institutions have significantly different valuations. Morgan Stanley gives SpaceX a target price of $300, while Goldman Sachs sets it at only $205, with a valuation gap of up to $1 trillion.
Target prices for SpaceX from other Wall Street institutions are as follows: Citigroup $200, JPMorgan Chase $225, Deutsche Bank $255.
Morgan Stanley uses a 15-year discounted cash flow model for each business segment, cross-validated with valuation multiples to support its valuation. Its forecast for the company's short-to-medium-term performance is more conservative, but more optimistic in the long term. It expects SpaceX's adjusted EBITDA in 2029 to be $162 billion, and that the company will not achieve positive free cash flow until 2035.
Goldman Sachs' valuation model is directly based on 2029 performance forecasts, calculated using relative valuation multiples. Goldman Sachs is more optimistic than Morgan Stanley about SpaceX's short-to-medium-term financial performance, predicting that SpaceX will achieve positive free cash flow by 2031. By the end of 2029, the company's adjusted EBITDA will surge from last year's $6.58 billion to $352 billion.
Both institutions acknowledge that there is a gap between their forecasts and the company's current actual operating conditions.
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas stated that the commercial aerospace industry is entirely new, and SpaceX's future development is highly dependent on multiple core technologies that have yet to be commercialized, including the fully reusable Starship capable of thousands of launches per year, orbital computing power, and more.
Goldman Sachs' Sheridan expressed a similar view in the report, "In many areas, SpaceX has repeatedly achieved technological breakthroughs that industry experts once deemed impossible (though its development pace does not fully align with investors' timelines), especially with its significant advantages in low-cost deployment of various infrastructure-as-a-service businesses."$SPCX
However, the two institutions have significantly different valuations. Morgan Stanley gives SpaceX a target price of $300, while Goldman Sachs sets it at only $205, with a valuation gap of up to $1 trillion.
Target prices for SpaceX from other Wall Street institutions are as follows: Citigroup $200, JPMorgan Chase $225, Deutsche Bank $255.
Morgan Stanley uses a 15-year discounted cash flow model for each business segment, cross-validated with valuation multiples to support its valuation. Its forecast for the company's short-to-medium-term performance is more conservative, but more optimistic in the long term. It expects SpaceX's adjusted EBITDA in 2029 to be $162 billion, and that the company will not achieve positive free cash flow until 2035.
Goldman Sachs' valuation model is directly based on 2029 performance forecasts, calculated using relative valuation multiples. Goldman Sachs is more optimistic than Morgan Stanley about SpaceX's short-to-medium-term financial performance, predicting that SpaceX will achieve positive free cash flow by 2031. By the end of 2029, the company's adjusted EBITDA will surge from last year's $6.58 billion to $352 billion.
Both institutions acknowledge that there is a gap between their forecasts and the company's current actual operating conditions.
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas stated that the commercial aerospace industry is entirely new, and SpaceX's future development is highly dependent on multiple core technologies that have yet to be commercialized, including the fully reusable Starship capable of thousands of launches per year, orbital computing power, and more.
Goldman Sachs' Sheridan expressed a similar view in the report, "In many areas, SpaceX has repeatedly achieved technological breakthroughs that industry experts once deemed impossible (though its development pace does not fully align with investors' timelines), especially with its significant advantages in low-cost deployment of various infrastructure-as-a-service businesses."$SPCX
