Prediction market leader competition: Polymarket vs. Kalshi

Source: Messari; Compiled by Golden Finance

Prediction markets are becoming one of the most important battlegrounds in the cryptocurrency space.

Polymarket and Kalshi are at the core of this, and although their strategies differ, their ultimate goal is the same: to turn real-world events into liquid and tradable markets.

In the long run, this will bring better products to consumers and make prediction markets one of the leading areas in the cryptocurrency space.

The capital support for these two platforms reflects the importance people place on this field. Kalshi completed a $185 million Series C funding round in June, followed by a $300 million Series D funding round in October. Polymarket recently completed a $2 billion funding round, with the investor being the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Today, both companies have institutional influence that goes beyond their cryptocurrency-native roots.

Trading activities remain synchronized. In the first half of October, Polymarket's nominal trading volume reached $1.9 billion. Kalshi followed closely behind, reaching $1.8 billion. Both exchanges are expected to achieve an annualized trading volume of over $45 billion.

But the real change lies in how both parties position growth.

Kalshi was originally a regulated prediction market in the United States and received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It is now shifting towards cryptocurrency infrastructure and distribution. On October 13, they partnered with Pyth to publish their event data on-chain. A few days later, Robinhood announced that it would add over 100 event contracts from Kalshi, covering key political events in 2025, such as tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, government spending cuts, and more.

In contrast, Polymarket is expanding from a cryptocurrency-native foundation into the regulated sector. Earlier this month, they received approval to operate in the United States and launched a series of integrated services. Just in the past two weeks, it has launched a rise and fall stock market, allowing users to bet on stock price movements, added recharge and withdrawal features for Hyperliquid, and confirmed an exclusive integration with MetaMask.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour ( compares this competition to the rivalry between NFL stars Brady ) and Manning (, where the two operators inspire each other to enhance their competitiveness. He does not see Polymarket as a threat, but rather as a trustworthy competitor. Polymarket forces Kalshi to accelerate its pace of development, think more deeply, and provide better services. In his view, the ultimate beneficiaries of this pressure will be the users.

This is not just a battle for market share, but also a competition to optimize product architecture and distribution channels. Kalshi is expanding towards crypto-native infrastructure through data oracles and retail integration, while Polymarket is making strides towards regulatory onboarding and formal distribution via platforms like MetaMask. This ongoing competition is accelerating iterations of user experience, liquidity acquisition, and composability, and this dynamic change is exactly why prediction markets have a real opportunity to develop into leading financial-native elements.