Cardano founder blasts Trump for hype! Short-term speculation disrupts four-year market cycle

Cardano co-founder Charles Hoskinson claims that hype during the Trump era disrupted the bull market, dealt a “heavy blow” to bullish price forecasts for Cardano, and ADA continues to decline. He believes that short-term speculative trading on cryptocurrency news has disturbed the normal four-year market cycle, affecting the growth potential of altcoins like ADA.

Charles Hoskinson Blasts Trump Era Hype Disrupting Market Cycles

After Charles Hoskinson stated that the crypto boom during the Trump era has caused a “heavy blow” to the bull market and bullish Cardano price predictions, ADA continues to fall. The remarks from the co-founder of Cardano sparked widespread discussion in the crypto community, as they challenge the mainstream narrative—most people believe that Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies should be seen as a positive.

Hoskinson argues that short-term speculative trading on cryptocurrency news has disrupted the normal market cycle, impacting the upside potential of altcoins like ADA. His reasoning is that policy expectations following Trump’s election triggered irrational capital inflows, with “hot money” chasing short-term news rather than long-term value, causing crypto prices to diverge from fundamentals.

Although many expected Trump’s pro-cryptocurrency stance to become a strong driver by 2025, the “irrational” capital inflows have distorted price movements. Traditional crypto markets follow a four-year cycle aligned with Bitcoin halving events. After halving, Bitcoin’s new supply decreases, often triggering a bull run, followed by altcoins rallying. This cyclical pattern provides investors with a predictable framework: accumulation phase, rally, distribution, and decline.

However, Hoskinson believes Trump’s election has broken this cycle. The crypto policy expectations during Trump’s era—including potential deregulation, national Bitcoin reserves, and pro-crypto SEC chair appointments—sparked early capital inflows. This “front-running” behavior caused the market to overheat before the traditional start of a bull market.

More damagingly, these capital inflows mainly focused on short-term news trading. Whenever Trump made pro-crypto statements or appointed crypto-friendly officials, markets would surge temporarily but lacked sustainability. This “news-driven” trading replaced fundamental drivers, making projects like Cardano, which focus on technological development and ecosystem building, difficult to attain proper valuation.

Short-term speculative trading and weak investor sentiment make any upward momentum fragile. When markets are dominated by short-term speculators, negative news or profit-taking can quickly cause selling pressure to mount. In contrast, long-term investors tend to hold through volatility, providing price stability. Hoskinson hints that the current market lacks this stable foundation.

The industry is still struggling to cope with these effects. Policymakers need to balance innovation and regulation, investors must reassess valuation frameworks, and developers need to stay focused amid market noise. This adaptation process could take months or even years, during which projects like Cardano and ADA may face ongoing uncertainty.

Four-Year Market Cycle Disrupted by Trump Policy Expectations

Traditionally, the crypto market follows a roughly four-year cycle closely linked to Bitcoin halving events (which occur every four years). Post-halving, Bitcoin’s new supply decreases, historically triggering a bull run, followed by altcoin rallies. This cyclical pattern offers a predictable framework for investors: accumulation, rally, distribution, and decline.

But Hoskinson believes Trump’s election has shattered this cycle. The crypto policy expectations during Trump’s era—including possible deregulation, national Bitcoin reserves, and the appointment of crypto-friendly SEC officials—caused capital to flow in prematurely. This “front-running” caused the market to overheat ahead of the typical start of a bull run.

More destructive is that these capital inflows mainly targeted short-term news trading. Whenever Trump made pro-crypto remarks or appointed crypto-friendly officials, markets would spike temporarily but lacked sustainability. This “news-driven” approach replaced fundamental-driven growth, making projects like Cardano, which emphasize technological progress and ecosystem development, difficult to value properly.

Short-term speculation and weak investor confidence make any upward trend fragile. When markets are led by short-term traders, negative news or profit-taking can quickly trigger a sell-off. Long-term investors, however, tend to hold through volatility, providing stability. Hoskinson suggests that the market currently lacks this stable base.

The industry continues to work through these impacts. Policymakers need to find a balance between innovation and regulation; investors need to reassess valuation models; developers need to stay focused amid market noise. This adjustment could take months or years, during which ADA and other altcoins may experience persistent uncertainty.

Cardano Technical Analysis: Support at $0.51 Broken

(Source: TradingView)

Despite market volatility hindering bullish momentum, Cardano has remained relatively stable by maintaining the support trendline (which marked lows during this market cycle). However, the support at $0.51, a one-year support level, has been broken, putting pressure on the trendline again. This support level is significant technically because it has been tested multiple times since 2024 without being broken.

If history repeats, this could mark the start of ADA’s next bull run. Historically, Cardano tends to form a bottom around the support trendline and then initiate a new rally. But this time, the macro environment has changed due to Trump policy expectations.

Momentum indicators support a potential rebound. The RSI is approaching the oversold threshold of 30, a typical bottom signal during corrections, indicating selling pressure is nearing exhaustion. RSI (Relative Strength Index) below 30 is generally viewed as oversold, and ADA has historically rebounded after RSI enters oversold territory.

Although the MACD indicator has not yet shown a bullish trend, the ongoing buying pressure and the widening gap between the MACD line and signal line suggest decreasing downside momentum. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) measures trend strength; when the gap widens, it indicates the current trend (up or down) is intensifying. Currently, MACD remains in the bearish zone, but the expanding gap could signal that downward momentum is waning.

Key Technical Indicators for Cardano

Current Price: Approximately $0.44 (based on context)

Key Support: $0.33 (25% downside target)

Resistance Level: $0.51 (one-year support now resistance)

RSI: Approaching 30 (oversold zone)

MACD: Bearish but with widening gap (downward momentum may weaken)

Prices may still decline further, risking a prolonged downtrend. The next major demand zone is around $0.33, which could serve as a bottom, implying a 25% drop from current levels. A drop to $0.33 would test Cardano’s longstanding support trendline; if this level breaks, a deeper bear market could ensue.

Dual Scenario: Down 25% vs. Surge 585%

But if a rebound occurs, a symmetrical triangle pattern might form. A symmetrical triangle is a classic technical pattern characterized by converging higher lows and lower highs, typically signaling a period of consolidation before a breakout. If Cardano forms this pattern, the breakout direction will determine its trajectory in the coming months or even years.

In an optimistic scenario, the target is to retake Trump-era highs, surpassing previous levels by 210% to reach $1.35, and ultimately hitting $3, a 585% increase. This projection is based on the measurement rule of symmetrical triangles: the target price after breakout is usually equal to the height of the pattern added to the breakout point. If ADA rebounds from $0.33 and breaks above the triangle’s upper boundary, a $3 target is technically feasible.

The current market adversity might be just a reshuffling for weak-handed investors, bringing prices closer to fundamentals and setting the stage for a future breakout rally. This “shakeout” theory is common in crypto markets: a sharp downturn clears out leveraged positions and speculators, leaving resilient long-term holders to lay a healthier foundation for the next surge.

With positive factors like ETF approvals and corporate bond interest, coins like ADA are poised for a new rally, providing fundamental reasons for further growth. If Cardano spot ETF gets approved, it will offer institutional investors a compliant entry point. Additionally, if more publicly listed companies allocate ADA to treasury reserves (similar to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy), demand could significantly increase.