Bitcoin falls below 90,000—MicroStrategy pauses buying? Saylor's cost basis at 102,000 put to the test

The price of Bitcoin is hovering around $88,000, bringing renewed attention to MicroStrategy’s operating cost basis. MicroStrategy acquired more than 8,000 Bitcoins between November 10 and 16 at an average price near $102,000, pushing up its blended cost basis. The company has yet to release any updates regarding its anticipated Bitcoin purchase plans, which may suggest a pause in its ongoing Bitcoin investments.

MicroStrategy’s Latest Purchase Cost Line at $102,000 Under Pressure

(Source: Saylor Tracker)

Between November 10 and November 16, MicroStrategy acquired over 8,000 Bitcoins, reportedly at an average price close to $102,000. This increased its holdings and pushed the blended cost basis to a level that would not have been reached without these year-end purchases. This latest acquisition has significantly raised MicroStrategy’s overall Bitcoin cost basis. When the spot price of Bitcoin falls below the latest acquisition levels and approaches the blended cost, the focus often shifts from apparent gains to liquidity management.

During periods of market weakness, new capital deployed at higher prices takes longer to accrue unrealized profits. With Bitcoin currently trading around $88,000—well below the $102,000 purchase price—these 8,000 newly acquired Bitcoins are already at an unrealized loss of approximately 13.7%. At a loss of $14,000 per Bitcoin, the unrealized loss for this batch amounts to $112 million.

More critically, when Bitcoin’s price remains below the company’s average purchase price, it tests the flexibility of its balance sheet. MicroStrategy’s business model is essentially a leveraged Bitcoin investment vehicle, raising funds through stock and bond issuance to purchase Bitcoin. This model is highly efficient in a bull market, as rising Bitcoin prices increase the company’s market cap and reduce the dilution cost of issuing new shares. However, when Bitcoin prices fall near the cost line, this virtuous cycle can reverse.

Three Major Impacts of the MicroStrategy Cost Line

Unrealized Loss Pressure: The latest 8,000 BTC were bought at $102,000, with an unrealized loss of about $112 million.

Balance Sheet Flexibility: Remaining below the cost line limits further financing and purchasing capacity.

Test of Market Confidence: Whether Saylor’s “never sell” strategy can withstand price pullbacks.

The company’s disclosures clearly show that recent purchases depend on securities issuance plans, so stock market risk appetite will also influence the pace and scale of future acquisitions. If Bitcoin prices remain below the blended cost for an extended period, attention will shift to debt policy and the pace of further issuances, as these plans have been at the core of building this position over the past year.

MicroStrategy’s Stock Price and Bitcoin Correlation Intensifies

The company’s stock price is currently above $177, up 4% today, indicating that the market remains optimistic about MicroStrategy’s valuation. However, the correlation between MicroStrategy’s stock price and Bitcoin has reached historic highs, with many research reports noting that the stock and cryptocurrency now trade as a pair. This high degree of linkage brings double risk or double opportunity for investors.

When Bitcoin’s price rises, MicroStrategy not only benefits from portfolio gains, but its share price premium also expands, allowing it to issue stock under more favorable conditions to purchase more Bitcoin. Conversely, when Bitcoin falls, the share price premium narrows or disappears, limiting financing capability. Currently, with Bitcoin below $90,000 and MicroStrategy stock up 4%, this short-term decoupling may reflect market expectations of a rapid Bitcoin rebound.

MicroStrategy’s toolkit is reflected in regulatory filings and market reports, which describe common stock sales, preferred stock issuances, and the stated intention to continue leveraging capital markets to increase token holdings through 2027. These tools work best when liquidity is stable and equity valuations are above underlying asset value, as such premiums reduce the real cost of new purchases. If equity risk shifts with crypto market weakness, token issuance remains possible, but the potential upside may be diminished.

Price action will determine the direction of these mechanisms. If Bitcoin quickly rebounds above the recent purchase level of $102,000, it will help restore a buffer and ease concerns about short-term equity dilution. Such a rebound would reactivate MicroStrategy’s financing engine, enabling continued aggressive buying.

Pause in Buying Signals and Market Impact

MicroStrategy has not released any updates regarding its anticipated Bitcoin purchase plans, which may suggest a pause in its ongoing Bitcoin investments. This silence is unusual in MicroStrategy’s history, as Michael Saylor typically announces each purchase actively on social media. This abnormal silence has sparked market speculation: has MicroStrategy slowed its buying pace due to the Bitcoin price drop?

From a strategic perspective, pausing purchases may be a rational choice. Continuing to buy large amounts of Bitcoin below the latest cost line would further raise the average cost and compress future profit margins. Waiting for prices to stabilize or rebound before resuming purchases can avoid the pitfalls of “buying high and selling low.” However, this strategy shift may also be interpreted by the market as a sign of weakened short-term confidence from MicroStrategy.

Another possibility is that the financing window has temporarily closed. MicroStrategy’s purchase funds mainly come from equity offerings and convertible bond issuances, which require favorable market conditions. If current market risk appetite for tech and growth stocks declines, MicroStrategy may find it difficult to raise funds at ideal prices and thus be forced to pause its purchase plans.

ETF Fund Flows and Stablecoin Supply as External Indicators

External signals from the company will indicate the next moves for MicroStrategy and the Bitcoin market. ETF inflows and outflows for spot Bitcoin products affect daily settlement demand. Stablecoin supply trends help distinguish between cash-driven buying and short covering during rebounds. The order book depth for BTC and ETH pairs reflects whether market makers are willing to accumulate inventory during event windows.

In recent weeks, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows, indicating that institutional investors are reducing their Bitcoin allocations. This outflow has increased downward pressure on Bitcoin prices and limited MicroStrategy’s ability to raise funds through the market. If ETF outflows persist, Bitcoin may remain under pressure, making MicroStrategy’s position even more challenging.

Changes in stablecoin supply provide another key perspective. When USDT and USDC supply increases, it usually means new capital is entering the crypto market, offering potential buying pressure for Bitcoin. Conversely, declining stablecoin supply suggests capital is leaving. When these indicators are stable in tandem, Bitcoin price rebounds tend to be sustained. When they diverge, price rebounds often end with lower closing prices.