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Market expectations: U.S. February PCE data shows inflation is still high, and the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged in April

Macroeconomics Monetary Policy

2026-04-09 06:35:51

Gate News message. April 9: The market expects that the U.S. February PCE data will show that inflationary pressures persist. According to consensus expectations, the year-over-year PCE month-over-month is expected to rise to 0.4% in February and remain at 2.8% year-over-year; core PCE is expected to be about 3.0% year-over-year, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target level. The market believes that this inflation rebound is mainly driven by a recovery in commodity prices and higher energy costs, and that service-sector inflation is unlikely to fall meaningfully in the near term. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve may continue to keep the 3.50%-3.75% interest-rate range at its April policy meeting, which would be the third consecutive time it pauses rate cuts. Market pricing shows that currently more than 97% of traders expect rates to remain unchanged in April, and rate-cut expectations for the rest of the year have cooled.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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