Odaily News Galaxy Digital's research director Alex Thorn stated that the continuous expansion of institutional access is resonating with the gradually easing monetary policy and the urgent demand for non-US dollar hedging assets. Over the next two years, Bitcoin is likely to be widely accepted as an asset to hedge against currency depreciation, similar to gold. He predicts that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. The trend in 2026 is too chaotic to predict, but it is still possible for Bitcoin to set a new historical high in 2026. Currently, the pricing provided by the options market shows that by the end of June 2026, the probability of Bitcoin falling to $70,000 or rising to $130,000 is almost equal; similarly, by the end of 2026, the probability of falling to $50,000 or rising to $250,000 is also close. Such a wide price range reflects the market's high uncertainty regarding the short- to medium-term outlook. Alex Thorn also pointed out that the long-term volatility of Bitcoin has structurally decreased when viewed from the annual performance, partly due to the larger scale of covered calls and the introduction of Bitcoin yield generation strategies. It is noteworthy that in the current BTC volatility smile curve, the pricing of put options at the volatility level has exceeded that of call options, which was not the case six months ago. This “maturation” trend may continue. Regardless of whether Bitcoin continues to pull back and approaches the 200-week moving average, the maturity of this asset class and the level of institutional adoption are continuously improving. 2026 may be a relatively uneventful year for Bitcoin, and whether it ultimately closes at $70,000 or $150,000, our bullish judgment on its long-term prospects will only become more steadfast.
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