According to Golden Finance, on-chain data analyst Murphy has published a lengthy article analyzing market expectations and trading thoughts for 2026. A turning point will definitely occur in 2026, and the timing will be earlier than most people's expectations. In other words, I don't believe that Q4 2026 will be the bottom of the Bear Market; it will definitely happen earlier.
From the perspective of chip structure, the two ranges of 70k-80k USD and 60k-70k USD are both strong supports. The former is the force of the large range “double anchor structure,” while the latter has a accumulation of nearly 1.2 million chips, and still has this much remaining after going through a round of large-scale distribution.
Therefore, my personal expectation is that even if we continue to experience a Bear Market in 2026, it is more likely to bottom out within the above two ranges. The probability of reaching $70,000-$80,000 is greater than that of $60,000-$70,000. Many friends may think I am too optimistic, and yes! I have always maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook.
But I won't bet that BTC will definitely drop to or below here; I will just prepare for it in advance. If it reaches that point, I will buy according to plan; if not, I will wait for the right-side opportunity.
Although there are issues such as capital costs and time costs here, this is not what I want to consider. What I want to capture is certainty (no one can buy at the lowest and sell at the highest), using time to exchange for space. I believe that once BTC enters the $70,000 range, there will be a lot of off-market funds actively participating. Because as long as you believe that in the next bull market BTC can reach $150,000, then entering at this time is definitely a double expectation.
$150,000 - We're not far from it. Whether you believe it or not, I believe in the reversal.
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