Has Ethereum's deleveraging been completed? Unclosed contracts have experienced a 50% Slump, and the ETH price has entered a low-risk oscillation range.

Recently, the price movement of Ethereum (ETH) has stabilized, and market risks have significantly decreased. After several months of high margin trading, the Ethereum derivation market is completing a round of systematic deleveraging. Data shows that since August, the open interest of Ethereum on mainstream exchanges has decreased by about 50%, and market sentiment is gradually cooling.

According to statistics released by Alpharectal on December 21, the total open contracts for Ethereum are currently only about half of the summer peak. Open contracts are generally regarded as an important indicator of market leverage and potential risk. When open contracts decrease, it means that traders are actively closing positions, and the liquidation risk simultaneously decreases. Currently, a certain CEX remains the exchange with the largest scale of ETH open contracts, at approximately $7.6 billion, followed by Gate and another CEX.

The completion of deleveraging has significantly reduced the likelihood of severe short-term price movement, but it also means that the market is entering a phase of directional selection. Historical experience shows that similar resets of open contracts often occur before the start of the next round of trend movements, whether it is a rebound or further pullback.

More on-chain data supports the judgment of alleviated selling pressure. CryptoQuant analysis points out that the active selling volume of Ethereum traders on mainstream CEX platforms has dropped to its lowest level since May, with a 30-day average of approximately $6.3 billion. The weakening selling momentum indicates that panic selling has reached a temporary end, but buyers have yet to establish a clear dominance.

From a technical perspective, the daily structure of Ethereum is still in a descending channel, with highs and lows continuing to decline. The current price mainly oscillates between the 2800 USD and 3300 USD range, which has become a key battleground. Short-term moving averages continue to suppress price upward movement, and repeated rebounds have not been able to effectively break through.

The Bollinger Bands are beginning to narrow, reflecting a decrease in market volatility, which usually indicates that the market is about to choose a direction. The trading volume has significantly shrunk after the previous decline, indicating that the selling pressure is weakening, but the bulls have not yet entered the market on a large scale. The RSI indicator has risen close to 50, suggesting there is potential for a technical rebound in the short term, but the trend has not yet reversed.

Overall, as the leverage risk is released, the price of Ethereum is entering a relatively low-risk fluctuation phase. If it breaks through the 3300–3500 USD range with increased volume and a rise in open contracts, a bullish structure will gradually be established; conversely, if it falls below the 2800–3000 USD support, new downward pressure should be watched for. For investors focused on Ethereum's price movement, changes in ETH open contracts, and the deleveraging cycle, the current phase is closer to a “consolidation period” rather than the end of a trend.