Bitcoin Long-Term Holders’ Profits Plunge to Monthly Low: More Downside Ahead?

Bitcoin’s price action remains choppy, with recent recovery attempts struggling to gain traction. While BTC briefly bounced from sub-$86,000 levels, momentum is still fragile—and a key group of holders is adding pressure.

Long-term holders (LTHs) are showing clear signs of weakening conviction, raising the risk of prolonged consolidation or further downside.

• LTH unrealized profits have fallen to a monthly low, increasing distribution pressure.
• 30-day change in LTH supply hits a 20-month low—indicating defensive selling.
• Bitcoin trades near $87,900; a break above $88,210 is needed for any meaningful recovery.

Long-Term Holders Start to Feel the Pain

On-chain data reveals that Bitcoin long-term holders have ramped up selling in recent days. The 30-day change in LTH supply has dropped to its lowest level in 20 months—last seen at similar extremes in April 2024.

This sharp decline signals that long-term holders are actively reducing exposure to lock in remaining gains before profits shrink further. Such behavior typically adds overhead supply and makes sustained recoveries harder, as new buyers must absorb the extra selling.

LTH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Hits Monthly Low

Glassnode’s LTH NUPL metric (net unrealized profit or loss) has declined to its lowest point in over a month. As unrealized profits erode, these holders become more sensitive to downside moves and often accelerate distribution to protect capital.

Historically, falling LTH NUPL readings trigger defensive selling. However, once the indicator drops significantly, selling pressure tends to ease—creating a potential stabilization zone where new demand can take over.

Bitcoin Price Stalls Near Key Resistance

At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $87,900, still below the critical $88,210 resistance level. The asset recently recovered after briefly dipping under $86,247 support, showing buyers remain active on dips.

A short-term push toward $90,308 is possible, but overhead resistance could limit upside. With ongoing LTH distribution, Bitcoin is likely to stay range-bound near the $88,200–$90,300 zone until excess supply is absorbed.

Upside potential strengthens if long-term holder selling slows. A clear break above $90,308 would invalidate the bearish outlook and signal renewed confidence among major market participants.

Bitcoin LTH Profitability & Supply FAQ

1. What does the LTH supply change tell us? A sharp drop in the 30-day change means long-term holders are selling more than they’re buying, adding distribution pressure.

2. Why is LTH NUPL dropping? Unrealized profits are shrinking as Bitcoin’s price falls from recent highs, making holders more willing to sell to lock in gains.

3. Is this a bearish or bullish signal? Short-term bearish (more supply hitting the market), but historically, very low LTH NUPL often marks local bottoms as selling exhausts.

4. What price level would confirm a bullish reversal? A sustained daily close above $88,210, ideally followed by a move past $90,308, would shift momentum back to buyers.

5. How long might consolidation last? Until LTH selling slows and new demand emerges—typically when NUPL bottoms out and volume picks up on the upside.