Recent on-chain records indicate a nasty three months to the XRP holders as most investors decided to trade off their investments at prices that were below their point of entry. The data indicates that the selling pressure in Q4 was very high, and this was an indication of a high level of loss taking in the market. Analysts monitor this trend using the realized loss measure which captures the losses each time the holders transfer coins at prices lower than the initial point of purchase.
Realization Proft/Loss Ratio validates Capitulation
According to Glassnode, the realized profit/loss ratio of XRP has fallen below 0.5 in Q4 2025, which is an indication that the losses are much more than the gains. This fall is an indicator of capitulation, in which investors leave positions in a hurry following extended pressure into the downward. In this timespan, XRP experienced a 7-13 year-to-year decrease and closed at approximately 1.86 towards the end of December. Emotional selling instead of orderly distribution is indicated by the intensity of realized losses.
Trends in History lead to Muscular Fatigue
Similar realizations structures of profit/loss ratios tended to signify market exhaustion periods in the past crypto cycles. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have recorded similar values in the past, prior to the staging of 20-50 percent rebounds in the next few months. Though it cannot be predicted in history, traders typically consider the extreme levels of losses realized extreme as an indication that weak hands are out, and it may result in less sell pressure.
Exchange reserves declined by 45 to about 2.6 billion XRP despite heavy selling, but this is an indication that large holders were offloading them and not preparing to sell. This pattern is maintained despite the inflow of XRP-related ETFs to the tune of $1 billion to the market. This retail capitulation difference and falling exchange balances tend to indicate whales accumulating, thus giving a possible whales supply crash in case of an increase in demand in 2026.
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