Over the past 30 days, Solana (SOL) has decreased approximately 12%. As 2026 approaches, market opinions on SOL’s January trend are clearly divided. Based on historical performance, ETF fund flows, and technical indicators, SOL is currently in a critical window of bullish and bearish battles.
Historically, January has always been a strong month for Solana. Statistics show that SOL’s average return in January is nearly 59%, with a median increase of about 22%. Moreover, when December ends with a decline, the probability of a rebound in January is higher. For example, in December 2022, SOL dropped nearly 30%, but in January 2023, it surged by 140%. In December 2024, it fell by 20.5%, followed by a 22.3% rebound in January 2025. This month, SOL has already fallen nearly 7%, which from a statistical perspective, provides a basis for a technical rebound.
ETF fund flows also lean towards a positive outlook. Since its launch, the Solana spot ETF has not experienced net outflows, recording approximately $13.14 million in net inflows in the past week, with total assets exceeding $755 million. This indicates that, amid Bitcoin and Ethereum facing capital retracement, some institutions still selectively allocate to SOL. However, analysts also point out that this does not mean the start of a “altcoin season,” but rather that capital is concentrated in a few high-liquidity mainstream altcoins.
Technical signals are more complex. The two-day chart shows that while SOL’s price hits new lows, the RSI indicator is rising, forming a bullish divergence, which suggests a potential reversal. At the same time, the 100-period EMA is approaching a death cross with the 200-period EMA. Once confirmed, this bearish crossover could extend short-term downward pressure into late December or early January 2026. The derivatives market remains cautious, with most large holders and whale accounts maintaining net short positions, while some savvy funds are beginning to slightly position for a long.
Key price levels are crucial. $129 is the current pivot point. If SOL can stay above $129 for two consecutive days, it may open upward space, with targets at $150 and $171 respectively. The $116 level below is an important support. If broken, it would break the historical pattern of “decline in December, rise in January,” indicating continued weakness.
Overall, Solana’s price forecast shows that the January 2026 trend depends on whether the $129 level can be effectively broken. With ETF fund inflows continuing and momentum indicators improving, SOL has rebound potential; conversely, a drop below $116 warrants caution for further correction.
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