After experiencing turbulent market cycles, Ethereum’s price is expected to hover around $2,970 by the end of 2025. Entering 2026, the trend of ETH is full of divergence. On one hand, some analysts believe that a new round of crypto market recovery is brewing; on the other hand, there are views that Ethereum’s market structure remains weak and it is unlikely to form a clear upward trend in the short term.
From a technical perspective, ETH still operates within a bearish structure. If the price breaks below the key support level of $2,760, it may further decline to the $2,400 range or even lower. Historical seasonal data shows that Ethereum usually performs strongly in January, but the trend over the past year has weakened the reference value of this pattern, further amplifying the uncertainty at the beginning of 2026.
On-chain data provides certain support signals. Long-term holders have gradually replenished at low levels, the ETH staking queue has expanded, with over 30% of the total supply locked, indicating that some funds are optimistic about Ethereum’s medium- to long-term value. Meanwhile, the ETH balance outside exchanges has rebounded, suggesting phase-wise accumulation behavior by whales. However, it should be noted that these indicators mainly reflect bottom-building rather than trend reversals.
The core variable limiting Ethereum’s rise remains the funding environment. Continuous outflows of funds from spot ETH ETFs have become an important factor restricting price rebounds. Analysts believe that only when ETF fund flows stabilize, staking demand continues to strengthen, and the price reclaims the key resistance level of $4,770, will ETH have the conditions to challenge long-term targets of $7,000 to $9,000.
Overall, the price trend of Ethereum in 2026 is more likely to show a “slow, condition-driven recovery.” Before macro liquidity improves, ETH will remain in a neutral to weak pattern, and a truly trend-driven rally may still require waiting for more external catalysts to materialize.
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