Market traders currently estimate only a 21% chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year, indicating a rather cautious sentiment, although many experts believe 2026 will be the true breakout year for BTC. According to Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin hitting $120,000 — still below the all-time high — is 45%, while higher targets decrease significantly: $130,000 (35%), $140,000 (28%), and $150,000 (21%). The most “safe” price level at the moment is considered to be $100,000 with an 80% likelihood.
This caution may stem from the four-year cycle associated with halving gradually losing its effectiveness, especially as Bitcoin ends 2025 in the red. However, the long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations that the US will cut interest rates, along with cryptocurrency bills like GENIUS and CLARITY, potentially boosting institutional capital flows. Many major organizations forecast BTC reaching $150,000 in 2026, or even $200,000–$250,000 in optimistic scenarios.
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