Ethereum experienced a significant correction at the end of Q4 2025, with a quarterly decline of 28.28%. After months of volatile trading, year-end sell-offs, portfolio rebalancing, and tax-related operations collectively suppressed market sentiment, putting noticeable pressure on ETH prices at year-end. However, from a historical cycle perspective, such Q4 declines are often not the end of the trend but rather the starting point of a new upward movement.
According to quarterly return charts shared by crypto analyst Crypto Rover (data sourced from Coinglass), Ethereum has experienced similar Q4 declines in 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2022. Notably, in all these cycles, the following first quarter recorded positive returns, with the second quarter’s gains further amplifying. Historical data shows that the average return in Q1 is about 139%, and the average increase in Q2 even reaches 158%, demonstrating a consistent seasonal pattern of “Q4 decline, Q1—Q2 rebound.”
Looking at the current cycle, Ethereum’s price in Q1 2026 has already shown initial strength, with a cumulative increase of approximately 6.57% so far. Market buying has been gradually returning, liquidity conditions have improved, and long-term holders’ confidence is gradually being restored. As year-end selling pressure diminishes, risk appetite often re-emerges at the beginning of the year, creating a favorable environment for ETH price rebounds.
From a market outlook, both historical trends and current technical patterns support a medium-term bullish view. However, it is important to emphasize that this is not a certainty. Changes in regulatory policies, macroeconomic fluctuations, and unexpected external shocks could still disrupt Ethereum’s price trajectory. Short-term traders focus more on whether trading volume is also increasing, while medium- and long-term investors tend to observe the sustainability of network fundamentals and capital flows.
Overall, after experiencing a Q4 decline, Ethereum often performs strongly in Q1 and Q2. Combining the actual data at the start of 2026 with historical statistical patterns, the probability of ETH maintaining a bullish trend in the first half of the year is increasing, but its trajectory remains subject to ongoing monitoring and cautious assessment.
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