VanEck: Bitcoin will reach $2.9 million by 2050 as it gains strong traction in global commerce

According to forecasts by analysts at asset management firm VanEck, the price of Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050, as it becomes a means of payment for international and domestic trade, and is also included in central bank reserves with a larger proportion.

The $2.9 million target price is based on the assumption that Bitcoin will achieve an annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of (15%), while serving as a payment method for 5%-10% of total international trade value and 5% of global domestic trade by 2050. This forecast was made by Matthew Sigel – Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, along with Patrick Bush – Senior Investment Analyst.

According to the two experts, the expansion of global liquidity and the depreciation trend of fiat currencies will be the main drivers pushing Bitcoin’s value. “Within this framework, Bitcoin is no longer a tactical trading asset but acts as a long-term hedge against the risks of the monetary system,” they emphasized.

“Short-term price movements are still influenced by liquidity cycles and global leverage, but Bitcoin’s long-term value accumulation will be driven by the convergence of this currency and the structural shortcomings of the sovereign debt system,” Sigel and Bush further analyzed.

VanEck estimates that central banks could hold about 2.5% of their total assets in Bitcoin, and if the price reaches $2.9 million, Bitcoin would account for approximately 1.66% of the total global financial assets.

The $2.9 million price is considered VanEck’s baseline scenario. In a negative scenario, with a CAGR of only 2%, Bitcoin’s price would drop to $130,000; while in the most optimistic scenario, with a growth rate of up to 20%, Bitcoin could reach $52.4 million.

Main assumptions about Bitcoin in baseline, downside, and upside scenarios by 2050 | Source: VanEck Currently, Bitcoin is already used in international trade transactions, especially in sanctioned countries like Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, but its adoption in G7 countries remains limited.

If Bitcoin captures 5-10% of the international payment market according to VanEck’s model, it would have a popularity level comparable to the British Pound today in global trade payments.

According to data from SWIFT – the world’s largest international payment network, the US dollar accounted for 47.8% of total international trade transactions as of September 2025, followed by the euro and the British Pound at 22.8% and 7.4%, respectively. The Japanese Yen and Chinese Renminbi accounted for 3.7% and 3.2%, completing the list of the five most-used currencies.

International trade payment share via fiat currency through SWIFT as of September 2025 | Source: SWIFT Notably, the 15% CAGR used by VanEck in this forecast is lower than the 25% rate projected in December 2024, when the company estimated that if the US reserves 1 million Bitcoin, the national debt could decrease by up to 35% by 2049.