After the turbulent shocks of October and November 2025, Bitcoin has been consolidating in the $85,000 to $90,000 range for several weeks. Analysts point out that the market still lacks clear bullish catalysts, and Bitcoin’s sideways trend may continue.
Gerry O’Shea, Head of Global Market Insights at Hashdex, stated: “Although the upcoming weeks may bring some bullish signals due to the shift in U.S. monetary policy or progress in Congress’s cryptocurrency legislation, Bitcoin remains in a range-bound pattern for now.”
Jim Ferraioli, Head of Cryptocurrency Research and Strategy at the Center for Financial Research under Charles Schwab, also holds a relatively conservative view. He noted that Schwab does not set specific Bitcoin price targets, but overall, 2026 still has the potential to be a positive year. However, from the perspective of the cryptocurrency market, this year might be relatively “boring.”
Jim Ferraioli further analyzed that this correction is not only significant but also an essential step toward asset maturity: “Looking back at the November 2022 lows, Bitcoin surged to the all-time high of $126,000 last October, an 8-fold increase over three years. The market is now in a digestion phase, requiring time to absorb this massive rally.”
ETF Spotlight: Institutional Giants Still on the Sidelines
It is worth noting that the market structure has quietly changed. In the months following the all-time high, on-chain activity significantly cooled down, replaced by ETF capital flows becoming the dominant force influencing prices.
Jim Ferraioli pointed out: “Low trading volume, long-term holders taking profits, and Bitcoin balances on exchanges dropping to lows—all indicate that current market movements are entirely driven by ETF capital flows.”
While this structural shift makes investing in Bitcoin more accessible, it may also distort short-term market signals. Jim Ferraioli added:
The truly large institutional players have not yet fully entered the market. Once relevant legislation is enacted, it could push Bitcoin prices higher.
“Crypto Winter” Incoming?
Hyunsu Jung, CEO of Hyperion DeFi, noted that the narrative around Bitcoin is changing. As the ETF capital influx recedes from earlier this year, digital assets appear to be losing shine compared to other asset classes. Without a new wave of institutional funding or a shift in the overall economy (such as rate cuts), he expects Bitcoin to remain in a “sideways consolidation.”
Will Reeves, CEO of fintech company Fold, expressed a more straightforward view, believing this is purely a matter of “supply and demand cycles”:
Bitcoin is currently severely undervalued, and the market is waiting for selling pressure to subside and for a new wave of buying to come in.
As for whether the market has entered a new “crypto winter,” opinions still vary. Jim Ferraioli said: “According to traditional definitions, Bitcoin is undoubtedly in a bear market. But considering Bitcoin’s high volatility, a 30% correction is not uncommon.”
Although Bitcoin and the US stock market are always somewhat correlated, Bitcoin still has its own drivers: money supply, a deflationary supply growth mechanism, and most importantly, adoption rate. Whether the adoption rate can break through remains the biggest question mark this year.
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