January 16 News, Bitcoin prices have continued to rebound in recent trading, currently trading above $95,000 and once approaching the key resistance zone of $98,000. As prices steadily rise, market sentiment is gradually shifting to cautious optimism, but on-chain data also shows that the bulls and bears are engaging in a new round of competition at this level.
Data shows that Bitcoin recently reached a high of approximately $97,500, marking a phased high since November 2025. Notably, this rebound has not been accompanied by a significant increase in retail investor sentiment. On-chain analysis firm Santiment pointed out that over the past few days, the number of Bitcoin addresses holding has decreased by about 47,000, indicating that some small and medium investors are choosing to exit the market during the rally.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin balances on exchanges continue to decline, currently down to about 1.18 million coins, the lowest in nearly seven months. Historical experience suggests that a decrease in Bitcoin holdings on exchanges often indicates short-term selling pressure easing, with more chips transferred to long-term holdings or cold wallets, which to some extent provides support for the price.
From the holding structure perspective, short-term holders' profit levels are improving rapidly. Metrics related to market value and realized value show that short-term holders' unrealized gains have risen to their highest since 2023. This change reflects the effectiveness of recent buying activity and also indicates that potential profit-taking risks are accumulating. If prices continue to rise, some short-term funds may choose to lock in profits, which could interfere with the upward trend.
On the technical side, Bitcoin is currently operating within an ascending wedge pattern. If the price can effectively break through and stabilize above $98,000, turning this level into support, the market will further target the $100,000 mark. Conversely, if upward momentum weakens and the price falls below the psychological support of $95,000, it may retreat to around $93,000, and the short-term bullish structure could be broken.
From a medium-term perspective, the decline in exchange balances, chip transfer, and dip-buying behavior still provide some resilience for Bitcoin. However, as it approaches key historical zones, short-term volatility risks are clearly increasing. Next, whether $98,000 can be successfully broken and stabilized will be a crucial watershed in determining Bitcoin's next phase of movement.
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