BlockBeats News, January 19 — “BTC OG Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin posted a lengthy article on social media stating that some analysts have recently compared the current Bitcoin price trend to the 2022 market (bearish). There may be some similarities in short-term price patterns. However, when looking at the long-term picture, such comparisons are completely absurd.
Garrett Jin explained that the current macro environment is the opposite of 2022. In early 2022, the primary goal of capital was risk avoidance, and Bitcoin was showing a high-position distribution structure during a tightening cycle. Under the current macro environment, the US liquidity index has broken through both short-term and long-term downtrend lines, and a new upward trend is emerging.
Additionally, between 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin exhibited a weekly M-top structure, which is usually associated with long-term cycle tops and can suppress prices for a long time. Currently, a weekly upward channel has broken down. From a probabilistic perspective, this looks more like a bear trap before a rebound back into the channel. While the possibility of a bear market cannot be ruled out, it is important to note that the $80,850/$62,000 range has experienced sufficient consolidation and turnover. The previous chip digestion process provided a better risk-reward ratio for bulls: the upside potential is significantly greater than the downside risk.
To restart a bear market, new inflation shocks or major geopolitical crises comparable to 2022 would need to occur; central banks would need to restart rate hikes or implement quantitative tightening; simultaneously, prices would need to decisively and persistently break below $80,850. Until these conditions are met, asserting a structural bear market is premature and more speculative than analytical.
The biggest difference between Bitcoin investor structures in early 2026 and 2022 is the shift from retail-led, high-leverage speculation to institution-led, long-term structural holding. In 2022, Bitcoin experienced a typical “crypto-native bear market” driven by panic selling among retail investors and chain-reaction margin liquidations. Now, Bitcoin has entered a much more mature institutional era, characterized by: stable underlying demand, locked-in supply, and institutional-level volatility.
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