ADA price shows a bullish divergence, whales increase holdings by 100 million Cardano, is a rebound window opening?

January 20 News, the price of Cardano (ADA) has been under continuous pressure recently, but multiple technical and on-chain signals indicate that the market structure is changing. On the daily chart, ADA has once again formed a typical bullish divergence pattern: the price keeps making new lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising simultaneously, suggesting that downward momentum is weakening. This pattern previously triggered a roughly 32% rebound at the end of 2025, and a similar structure is now re-forming between November 2025 and mid-January 2026.

From on-chain data, whale behavior has become a key variable in the current pattern. Since January 12, wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA have collectively increased their holdings by about 100 million tokens, with holdings rising from 5.51 billion to 5.61 billion tokens, worth approximately $36 million at current prices. Such accumulation usually occurs before price stabilization or reversal, rather than after a trend has already started, which enhances the credibility of the technical pattern.

The activity of long-term holders also sends stable signals. Addresses with a holding period of 180 to 365 days have spent over 99% fewer tokens in the past week, indicating that this group has not exited during the decline, reducing the likelihood of panic selling. In contrast, short-term holders are more active, with on-chain spending by addresses holding tokens for 30 to 60 days significantly increasing, which may exert some selling pressure during the rebound phase but also reflects market liquidity is recovering.

Fundamental indicators further support this view. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has remained above zero during periods of price weakness, indicating that funds are not significantly flowing out of the ADA market and there are signs of accumulation at lower levels.

Regarding key price levels, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $0.41 is an important short-term rebound threshold. If the daily chart effectively breaks through this area, $0.43 will become the next target; in the medium term, the 200-day moving average near $0.48 is seen as a zone for trend reversal confirmation. Downside risks should still be monitored at $0.35; if this level is broken, the bullish divergence structure will be weakened, and the price may retest $0.32.

On the news front, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson recently publicly criticized the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, sparking community discussion and boosting bullish sentiment on an emotional level. Nevertheless, on January 19, ADA experienced a rapid pullback due to macro market volatility, indicating that the price trend remains constrained by the overall risk environment.