BlockBeats News, January 30 — Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the “Bitcoin futures long and short liquidation dominance” data reached 97%, with the 30-day moving average rising to 31.4%. This indicates that almost all forced liquidations are from long positions, and buyers have been under systemic pressure over the past month.
Oscillator extreme values are often synchronized with peaks in forced selling and may lead to short-term stabilization. However, without other confirming signals, this does not indicate a trend reversal — to form a sustainable “local bottom,” at least the oscillator should return to zero or the 30-day moving average should decline.
Axel added that despite the sharp price drop and chain liquidations, BTC’s funding rate remains positive: yesterday’s reading was an annualized 43.2%. Although significantly lower than the peaks of 10–11 months ago (100%+), it still indicates that market demand for long exposure remains dominant. Over the past month, negative funding rates have only appeared briefly and sporadically.
The fact that the funding rate remains positive during large-scale liquidations increases the risk of further deleveraging: this suggests the market is quickly rebuilding long positions or is not yet ready to fully clear out. Complete “derivatives capitulation” typically involves the funding rate turning neutral or negative — which has not yet occurred.
The two charts together depict a scenario where deleveraging may still be incomplete: liquidations have heavily impacted longs, but the overall position structure remains bullish.
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