Has Ethereum fallen below $2300 and entered a high-risk zone? On-chain transactions surge, and ETH may continue to decline toward the $2000 level

Ethereum prices continue to weaken after the latest round of selling, currently hovering around $2,260, with a 24-hour decline of approximately 2.8%. The price has broken below the key psychological level of $2,300, while trading volume has simultaneously increased, indicating growing market divergence and higher short-term volatility risk for ETH.

From a market performance perspective, Ethereum has experienced significant fluctuations over the past week within the $2,120 to $3,034 range, but the overall trend remains clearly bearish. The cumulative decline over 7 days is about 24%, and over 30 days nearly 28%, retracing more than half from the 2025 high of $4,946. Meanwhile, spot trading activity has noticeably increased, with 24-hour trading volume surpassing $47 billion, and capital flows are active but have not stabilized the price.

Derivatives markets also signal caution. Futures trading volume has surged, but open interest has slightly decreased, indicating traders are more inclined to reduce positions rather than increase bets on a rebound. This structure typically suggests the market remains defensive.

On-chain indicators further raise alerts. CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain pointed out that the 14-day moving average of Ethereum transfer counts has risen to about 1.17 million transactions. Historically, similar surges in network activity occurred in early 2018 and mid-2021, both followed by significant price corrections. While high trading volume may also reflect increased usage, in the context of falling prices, it more likely indicates pressure from asset reallocation.

Technically, ETH remains in a clear downtrend. The price continues to be constrained by the 20-day moving average, and the lower Bollinger Band has been broken, indicating expanding downward volatility. The daily RSI is approaching 30, with no signs of momentum reversal. If ETH cannot regain stability above $2,300 and push toward $2,700, any rebound may be short-lived correction.

If ETH can hold the $2,150 to $2,200 range in the short term, there may be room for a technical retracement; otherwise, a breach of this zone could lead the market to reassess the support at $2,000. For investors monitoring Ethereum price movements, ETH technical analysis, and on-chain data changes, maintaining high vigilance at this stage is essential.