The New York Times reports CIA secret meeting with Jensen Huang and Apple’s Tim Cook: China’s 2027 attack on Taiwan will cause the US GDP to decline by 11%

The New York Times’ in-depth investigation reveals that CIA Director once secretly briefed Tim Cook, Jensen Huang, and other Silicon Valley giants in 2023, warning that China might take action against Taiwan before 2027. Taiwan produces about 90% of the world’s advanced chips. If supply is cut off, U.S. GDP could plummet by 11%—twice the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. Despite frequent warnings from the U.S. government, Silicon Valley has long resisted relocating manufacturing outside Taiwan.
(Background: Taiwan’s collective semiconductor tariff anxiety: What is the U.S. “Section 232”?)
(Additional context: Trump calls for ending $52 billion chip subsidy bill: doesn’t want to give TSMC a dime)

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• Losing Taiwan chips = U.S. Great Depression 2.0
• Silicon Valley’s stubborn resistance: U.S. chips are 25% more expensive, no one wants to buy
• Turning point: TSMC invests $150 billion in Arizona
• Potential impact on the crypto market

Yesterday, The New York Times reported that a secret briefing that changed Silicon Valley’s perception took place in a secure conference room somewhere in Silicon Valley. Apple CEO Tim Cook, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, AMD CEO Lisa Su all gathered in July 2023 for a private session hosted by the CIA on national security and international supply chains, with Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon joining via video. They listened to confidential briefings from CIA Director William Burns and National Intelligence Director Avril Haines: China’s military spending suggests Beijing may act against Taiwan before 2027.

After the briefing, Tim Cook told officials he couldn’t sleep:

I’ve been lying awake with one eye open ever since.

Losing Taiwan chips = U.S. Great Depression 2.0

This is not just speculation. According to information obtained by The Times, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) commissioned a confidential report in 2022 with a chilling conclusion: If Taiwan’s chip supply is interrupted, U.S. GDP could shrink by 11%—twice the impact of the 2008 financial crisis, comparable to a Great Depression-level economic disaster.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent bluntly called this a potential “Economic Apocalypse” at the World Economic Forum in Davos, noting that “97% of high-end chips worldwide are produced in Taiwan.”

TSMC currently manufactures about 90% of the world’s advanced chips, including all of Apple’s custom silicon for iPhone, iPad, and Mac. Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan has called U.S. dependence on Taiwan’s semiconductors one of “America’s greatest vulnerabilities.”

Silicon Valley’s stubborn resistance: U.S. chips are 25% more expensive, no one wants to buy

However, warnings aside, Silicon Valley’s response has disappointed Washington.

The core issue is simple: U.S.-made chips are over 25% more expensive because of higher costs for materials, labor, and licensing compared to Taiwan. In business terms, national security takes a backseat.

Despite the Biden administration’s $50 billion CHIPS Act, including $39 billion in direct subsidies and a 25% tax credit, major tech companies initially refused to buy large quantities of U.S.-made chips. Intel and Samsung even had their subsidies cut by $2.3 billion due to inability to secure customer commitments.

As early as March 2021, retired Indo-Pacific Commander Philip Davidson testified before Congress warning that a Taiwan Strait conflict could occur “within this decade.” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo also held confidential briefings with tech executives—yet results were minimal.

Turning point: TSMC invests $150 billion in Arizona

But the situation is shifting.

TSMC has committed to investing over $150 billion in Arizona to build multiple advanced wafer fabs. Nvidia has agreed to increase chip procurement from Arizona plants. The Taiwanese government further pledged $25 billion in credit guarantees to support the semiconductor manufacturing shift.

However, even with these major commitments, U.S. chip capacity is projected to reach only 10% of the global supply by 2030. In other words, Taiwan’s central role in the global advanced chip supply chain remains irreplaceable in the short term.

Potential impact on the crypto market

The Taiwan Strait geopolitical risk isn’t just a semiconductor issue. Bitcoin mining hardware, AI infrastructure, and all crypto-related infrastructure relying on advanced chips are closely tied to Taiwan’s supply. If tensions escalate, not only will traditional tech stocks face pressure, but the crypto market’s computing power supply chain could also face unprecedented shocks.