Bitwise: Bitcoin investors need to hold for at least 3 years to avoid losses, with nearly a 50% chance of loss from short-term trading

Odaily Planet Daily reports that digital asset management firm Bitwise Asset Management analyzed price data covering July 17, 2010, to February 11, 2026. The analysis shows that if investors hold Bitcoin for at least three years, the historical probability of experiencing a loss is only 0.70%. The longer the holding period, the lower the risk of loss: holding Bitcoin for 5 years reduces the loss probability to 0.2%, and holding for 10 years results in a 0% loss probability. In contrast, investors with holding periods of less than three years face higher risks, with intraday buyers having a 47.1% chance of unrealized losses, a 44.7% chance over one week, 43.2% over one month, and even a 24.3% chance of loss after one year. Bitwise points out that the current Bitcoin price is about $65,000, roughly 50% below the October 2025 peak. However, the realized price for the three- to five-year holding group is approximately $34,780, indicating that overall, investors in this range are still in about 90% unrealized profit. (Cointelegraph)