Oil Price Shock Coupled with War Risk, Bitcoin Key Support in Critical Condition: 65K May Be Next Target

Gate News, March 20 — The escalation of Middle East tensions and soaring energy prices have impacted global markets, causing significant fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. After Iran launched an attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan natural gas processing facility, concerns over energy crises and inflation risks quickly intensified. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $69,000, then rebounded to around $70,000, fluctuating thereafter.

Macroeconomic pressures have also increased. Recent statements from the Federal Reserve have weakened expectations of rate cuts this year, putting risk assets under pressure from both liquidity tightening and valuation compression. David Lawant, Head of Research at Anchorage Digital, noted that the crypto market cannot operate independently from macroeconomic conditions and is similarly under pressure in the current environment.

Previously, Bitcoin showed signs of decoupling from traditional risk assets, exhibiting a “disconnection” trend. However, with ongoing conflicts and rising oil prices, this independence is diminishing. Analysts believe that rising energy prices will boost inflation expectations, delaying monetary easing cycles and exerting downward pressure on assets including Bitcoin.

Markets are now focusing on key technical levels. Matt Howells-Barby stated that if Bitcoin cannot hold the $69,000 support level, it could short-term retreat to around $65,000. Furthermore, Ripio CEO Sebastián Serrano suggested that in extreme scenarios, if selling pressure continues to grow, Bitcoin could even drop to $54,000.

Energy shocks have become a core variable. Recent strikes between Israel and Iran over energy infrastructure have driven oil prices higher, with market discussions about the risk of doubling oil prices. Rising oil prices not only affect corporate costs and economic growth expectations but also influence interest rate policies through inflation pathways, indirectly impacting the crypto market’s funding environment.

Currently, Bitcoin’s movement is more influenced by macro variables than on-chain factors. If oil prices and war risks continue to escalate, market volatility could intensify; conversely, if tensions ease or liquidity expectations improve, Bitcoin may have room for a rebound. In the short term, $69,000 remains a critical threshold, and its performance will determine the next directional trend.