Bitcoin dips back below $75,000 on the eve of the Federal Reserve decision

As the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate meeting (FOMC) approaches its conclusion, Bitcoin briefly broke through the $75,000 mark on Tuesday, but the rally failed to continue, and prices quickly retreated below $74,000, reflecting investors’ cautious stance on high-risk assets ahead of the policy announcement.

The Fed’s statement is scheduled to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on March 18 (early Thursday morning in Taiwan at 2 a.m.), followed by a press conference from Chair Powell. Analysts note that stable employment growth, retail sales, and ongoing inflation driven by rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions have raised the bar for rate cuts, potentially delaying the earliest possible cut to September or October. Powell’s remarks after the meeting will be crucial, providing clues about the “dot plot” updates and the committee’s outlook for limited rate cuts throughout the year.

Bitcoin’s recent upward movement has been partly supported by short-term market squeezes over the past two weeks. The options market initially held large hedging positions, and perpetual contract funding rates remained persistently negative, indicating a market structure that was “bearish, hedged, and under-hedged.” Under such conditions, any upward breakout easily triggers short covering, amplifying short-term gains.

However, the $75,000 level remains a significant resistance zone. Although Bitcoin briefly surpassed this level on Tuesday morning, the breakout was short-lived, and prices quickly fell back below $74,000.

Energy Market Heating Up Becomes a Resistance to Bitcoin’s Further Rise

Compared to technical resistance alone, what concerns the market more now is the potential resurgence of inflation driven by geopolitical tensions and energy prices. Since the outbreak of conflict with Iran, Bitcoin has shown strong momentum, but activity in on-chain energy and commodity markets has been even more prominent. Notably, on decentralized perpetual contract trading platforms like Hyperliquid, trading in oil-related futures has significantly increased, indicating that capital is shifting toward energy and raw material narratives.

Refined energy products such as gasoline and heating oil have better Sharpe ratios, tighter spot supply and demand, and favorable term structures. If oil prices continue to rise, markets will likely allocate more funds to assets benefiting from inflation and supply risks rather than chasing risk positions in cryptocurrencies.

Market Bets on Fed Holding Steady, but Rate Cut Expectations Are Delayed

Currently, markets widely expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged this week, but investor focus has shifted from “Will they cut rates?” to “When will they cut?” Recent reports, including from Reuters, indicate that due to rising energy prices and inflation risks from Middle East tensions, Wall Street institutions have delayed their first rate cut of the year. Expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have also become more conservative.

Market Pricing Reflects High Confidence in Status Quo, with Over 90% Probability of Holding Rates

Due to geopolitical risks pushing energy costs higher and persistent inflation data, the probability of three rate cuts by the end of 2026 has dropped from nearly 50% last week to around 20-30%. Traders are watching the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot plot for signs of a shift toward a more hawkish stance. Even small adjustments by FOMC members could signal “no rate cuts for the entire year.” Key focus includes the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which could spike if policymakers adopt a more cautious tone, putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks.

This macro environment is not entirely bearish for Bitcoin but suggests that valuation expansion will be limited in the short term. If oil prices continue to rise and inflation expectations heat up, the Fed may maintain a wait-and-see stance longer, slowing the rebound of risk assets. Under such conditions, a “rapid surge” in Bitcoin may become less likely.

Technical Outlook Remains Strong, but Market Has Not Confirmed a Breakout

In the short term, the market’s structure does not indicate a bearish turn for Bitcoin. Analysts point out that the recent approach toward $75,000 was driven mainly by strong technical signals and derivatives market liquidations, which on that day triggered about $124 million in liquidations, further boosting the rally. However, many market observers believe that current price action resembles a high-level consolidation rather than a confirmed new breakout, and Bitcoin has yet to establish a firm footing above the $75,000 threshold.