Bitunix analyst: Nghiệp vụ chậm lại làm gia tăng kỳ vọng nới lỏng, PMI tối nay có thể trở thành chất xúc tác ngắn hạn cho vàng và tài sản mã hóa

BlockBeats message: On January 6, research institutions pointed out that the structural cooling trend in the U.S. labor market is deepening, with unemployment rate, quit rate, and wage growth all weakening in sync, indicating a slowdown in demand rather than short-term fluctuations. This means that even without economic recession, the Federal Reserve may be forced to adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting path over the next one to two years than currently priced by the market to avoid “excessive tightening” of policy. On the macroeconomic level, if real interest rates decline faster than expected, mid-term pressure on the U.S. dollar is almost unavoidable, and capital will seek out assets with inflation resistance and hedging against currency credit risk. Gold has thus regained structural support, and this logic is gradually spilling over into the crypto market. Bitunix analyst viewpoint: Against the dual macroeconomic backdrop of employment slowdown and weak PMI data, the market has begun to front-run easy money risk premium. Gold’s bull market structure is solidified by interest rate decline expectations, while the attractiveness of crypto assets is being gradually repriced. If PMI comes in below expectations, it will in the short term reinforce safe-haven and easing bets, potentially triggering rapid gold appreciation and increased crypto market volatility. In the medium term, it will reinforce the easing narrative, benefiting risk asset valuation recovery, but also requires vigilance against repeated capital flows between U.S. dollar liquidity and volatile assets.