Eight consecutive days of gains were wiped out 50% in two days, proving our previous analysis was correct. From a technical structure perspective, the large-cycle bearish pattern has currently taken control of the market. At the daily level, a clear evening star pattern formed near 75,000 USD, followed by consecutive down days and pullbacks. The price has now broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and the middle line of the rebound channel. The momentum indicator has fallen from its highs, signaling the exhaustion of bullish momentum. Price is firmly suppressed below the middle band, with any rebound facing massive selling pressure. Today, 1.7 billion USD in options will expire, with the maximum pain point located exactly at 70,000 USD (for ETH, the maximum pain point is at 2150)). This means price may maintain oscillation between 69,000 and 71,000 before expiration, but once the options constraint is lifted, downward pressure will be further released. Moreover, if you recall, 69,000-71,000 was the last defensive position for bulls that I mentioned in many analysis reports from days before. If it breaks below, it may likely trigger continued selling.

Overall, today's price action will likely oscillate and consolidate between 68,500 and 71,000, with bias to the downside. Before options expiration, price may be drawn by the "maximum pain point" effect to oscillate repeatedly around the 70,000 level, but once expiration occurs, downward pressure will be concentrated and released. What needs to be watched is that if today's close fails to reclaim the 70,000 level, the daily chart will form an effective breakdown, and early next week may accelerate the downtest to the 65,000-67,000 area.

For BTC, focus on 70,500-71,500 for shorting opportunities, while for ETH, focus on the 2150-2220 rebound shorting opportunity.